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Dutch election: GreenLeft and Animal Rights gains the bright spots as Wilders stalls and mainstream right strengthens

 
 

By Dick Nichols and Will Wroth

 

March 21, 2017 — Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal — The containment in the March 15 Dutch general election of islamophobe Geert Wilders’ Party of Freedom (PVV) was greeted with relief by the mainstream European media (see table for election results as of March 19; final results will be declared on March 22).

 

The PVV’s final vote of only 13.1% (20 seats in the 150-seat lower house according to the Dutch proportional representation system) represented an increase of only 3% (5 seats): given expectations this advance was really a sizeable setback.

 

The PVV, which advocates shutting all mosques (“hate palaces”), banning the Quran, closing Dutch borders and leaving the European Union (“Nexit”), had been leading in opinion polls since September 2015. Its support reached high points of over 40 seats–up to 20 more than the ruling conservative People’s Party of Freedom and Democracy (VVD). Wilder’s one-man party—himself--only started to poll consistently behind the VVD in the last ten days of the election campaign.

 

By the same token, the losses of the VVD, down 5.2% to 21.3% (33 seats) amounted to a win. Polling over the final week of the election campaign gave the VVD an average loss of 15 seats compared to its 2012 result, but its final result was a loss of eight. That result will allow outgoing prime minister Mark Rutte to again lead a coalition government.

 

The PVV’s gains were below expectations because Wilders’ frenzy of hate-mongering generated its own antibodies in the Dutch body politic. An anti-PVV mobilisation took place as the participation rate jumped to 80.4%: turnout was the highest in 30 years. The high participation also reflected how important the poll was felt to be domestically and in the European context, along with how open the field was--this was no two-horse race inviting tactical voting.

 

The mood showed in the results for those parties most antagonistic to the PVV’s message, led by GreenLeft with an increase of 6.6% (from 4 to 14 seats) but also present in increased support for the progressive Party of the Animals (PvdD) and the social-liberal Democrats 66 (D66), up by 4% (7 seats). GreenLeft’s leader Jesse Klaver stood out in the election campaign with support for a higher refugee intake and his message that the PVV—not Islam--was the biggest threat to “Dutch values”.

 

Nonetheless, the election result primarily reflected a conservative and safety-seeking consolidation of the right and centre parties. The final week of polling had GreenLeft averaging a 13-seat gain and the VVD a 15-seat loss together with Wilders’ PVV in a clear second place just four seats behind the VVD, four in front of D66 and two ahead of the conservative Christian Democrat Appeal (CDA).

 

The final result, most likely produced by a last-minute surge to the polling stations of more conservative voters, saw the VVD loss cut to eight and its gap over the PVV increased to 13, while less-than-predicted support for Wilders brought the CDA to within a seat of the PVV. At the same time GreenLeft’s predicted gains were cut back by three seats and D66’s by one. It was as if the election campaign had generated two waves: an initial progressive surge against the PVV followed by an offsetting mainstream conservative tide favouring the VVD and CDA at the expense of the “extremes”.

 

The overall outcome will be a more right-wing cabinet than the previous “red-blue” coalition of the VVD and Labour Party (PvdA).

 

Labour Party ‘PASOKised’

 

The biggest loser on March 15 was the PvdA. Its support fell by 77%, from 24.8% to 5.7% (38 seats to 9). In the 2012 election the PvdA was lead party in over 100 of the Netherlands’ 388 municipalities: in 2017, in none.

 

The PvdA paid this huge price for its role in an administration notorious for spoiling the Dutch finance sector rotten and entrenching the Netherlands as the EU’s biggest tax haven--and this after Labour had promised major social advances at the 2012 elections in order to defeat the challenge from the Socialist Party (SP) to its left.

 

However, once in government the PvdA extended “business-friendly” policies so far that Dutch business is now paying only 18% of the country’s total tax take, as against 23% for Belgium and 26% for the other main European tax haven, Luxembourg. The red-blue coalition did 14,000 tax deals worth €5.5 billion with multinational firms--even as it increased the retirement age and inflicted cuts in social spending at the behest of the European Commission.

 

The PvdA’s loyalty to the Dutch and European status quo was best typified by the attack-dog performance of finance minister Jeroen Djisselbloem as head of the Eurogroup (of Eurozone finance ministers) in its 2015 financial war on the Greek SYRIZA government.

 

In the May 2015 upper house elections the party had already slumped to sixth. By December last year, its leader Diederik Samsom, victor over the SP in 2012, had vanished from Dutch politics after losing a desperate leadership challenge aimed at refloating the already beached party. The PvdA finds itself in a deep existential crisis: what role can it possibly play with its “natural” constituency so splintered, finding new homes in a spectrum of new and existing parties? One of its most clumsy ex-ministers, Ronald Plasterk, went so far as to suggest that the PvdA and GreenLeft actually fuse. That social-democracy is now by a long way the weakest on the broadly-conceived traditional “left”, is a political shift of generational proportions.

 

Voting shifts

 

Initial analysis of where the PvdA’s lost 29 seats went, shown on the website of Dutch public broadcaster NOS, reveals a wide dispersion: 6.5 seats to GreenLeft, 5 to D66, 4 to the SP, 2 each to the PVV and VVD, 1.5 to the CDA, 5 to other parties and 5 to abstention. In short, 10.5 former PvdA seats have definitely gone to the left, 5 to the centre and 5.5 to the right.

 

 

 

GreenLeft’s overall gain of 10 was the greatest (twice as much as the PVV’s), as anti-racist and environmentally minded voters—also still committed to some European vision if not to the present EU--swung to it. GreenLeft also won seats from the SP and D66. By contrast, the SP’s gains of four seats from the PvdA were more than offset by its loss of five, to GreenLeft, D66 and even to the CDA).

 

These last two parties were the next biggest winners. The CDA picked up its six-seat gain from the VVD (2.5), PvdA (1.5), SP (1) and D66 (1). After subtracting this last loss to the CDA, D66’s net gain of seven came from the PvdA (5), VVD (2) and SP (1).

 

The Dutch lower house is now even more fragmented, with more parties than since 1933 (13 in all). In 2012, three parties (VVD, PvdA and PVV) accounted for 60% of the vote: after March 15 these parties represent just over 40% and the combined vote of the first five parties is needed to reach 60%.

 

The minor parties already with parliamentary seats—the PvdD and the Over-50s party (+50)—have increased their presence while two new parties have entered at this election. They are Denk (“think” in Dutch, “balanced” in Turkish), a split from the PvdA championing migrant rights and multiculturalism and the eurosceptic Forum for Democracy (FVD), a right-libertarian outfit espousing increased military spending, tighter border controls, binding referenda and government by business people.

 

Denk, which has a quietly supportive line towards Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, would have been the main “other party” responsible for the PvdA’s disaster while the FVD would have created a support base for itself among xenophobic voters put off by Wilders’ most extreme formulations (like “Moroccan scum”). Thierry Baudet, FVD’s leader, made a name for himself by garnering support to force a referendum on the EU’s Ukraine treaty, and their platform is based around upsetting the existing “party cartel”, and calling for more “direct” democracy, including more frequent referenda.

 

At the same time, the traditional confessional parties, the Christian Union (CU) and the Calvinist Reformed Political Party (SGP), will maintain their minor presence, although the CU is widely seen as the most likely candidate for a spot in a VVD-CDA-D66-CU cabinet.

 

As a result of these shifts, the broad right-centre-left seat balance in the Dutch lower house has gone from 77-14 -59 to 77-31-42, reflecting a strengthening of the centre at the expense of the (broadly conceived) left. Subtracting the PVV, put into quarantine by all major parties, leaves the balance at 57-31-42. However, a positive outcome for progressive politics is that the bloc of parties to left of the PvdA (GreenLeft-SP-PdvD) has increased from 21 seats to 33.

 

Finally, the seat balance between parties supporting the EU and the parties demanding either Nexit or radical EU reform, has shifted from 118-32 to 109-41, not a huge change but reflecting a steady growth in Euro-scepticism in a core EU member state.

 

Right and far right

 

The PVV’s distant second place on March 15 sparked a shower of enthusiastic tweets from EU leaders and wild and wishful talk about the “end of populism”. European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker wrote to Rutte in these ecstatic terms: “The people of the Netherlands have voted overwhelmingly for the values that Europe represents: freedom and tolerant societies in a prosperous Europe.”

 

However, the VVD victory provides little real relief because this election has shifted Dutch politics further to the right: the likely outcome is another VVD-led government that has “beaten” Wilders by stealing planks from his platform (“getting tougher” on migrants and refugees). The CDA’s increased vote was also partially due to the same sort of respectable racism.

 

Some commentators have consoled themselves with the thought that the PVV’s 20 seats represents a lower high-tide mark for hate-mongering parties than the Pim Fortuyn List’s 26 seats in 2002 or Wilders’ own 24 seats won in 2010. This is beside the point: while xenophobic and Islamophobic views have a grip on up to 1.5 million people (in the Dutch case) “respectable right” governments are freer to implement pro-austerity, anti-democratic and inhuman policies, transforming political discussion into heated debates about who is best at handling “The Threat”.

 

As Dutch commentator Rutger Bregman remarked in the March 17 Guardian:

[L]et’s be honest, rightwing, anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders is this election’s real winner. We seem to be forgetting that his party gained five additional seats in the Dutch parliament. And more importantly: over the past 10 years, Wilders has wrenched most of the other parties toward his position on the fringes – particularly the fiscally conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the culturally conservative Christian Democratic party (CDA), both mainstream parties with widespread support.

Suppose a denizen of the 1980s had stepped into a time machine and travelled to watch the run-up to these Dutch elections. Imagine how surprised – or, more accurately, dismayed – they would be. So-called progressive and moderate politicians are currently making pronouncements that would have put them behind bars for inciting hate 30 years ago.

 

This choice between right and extreme right was dramatised in the March 13 TV debate between Rutte and Wilders. They clashed over Rutte’s handling of the “crisis” he had chosen to provoke by preventing the Turkish foreign minister from entering Holland to address a meeting of Dutch people of Turkish origin: the idea was to win their support for the authoritarian Erdogan government’s referendum to change the Turkish constitution to its own advantage. Wilders told Rutte: “You are being taken hostage by Erdogan. Close the Dutch borders...Expel the Turkish ambassador and his staff.”

 

Rutte played the statesman in return: “There’s a difference between tweeting from the sofa and running a country. If you are in charge of a country you need to take sensible measures…” This was the VVD (and increasingly CDA) message aimed at Wilders’ constituency throughout the election campaign: no party will govern with him, so don’t waste your vote. The tactic bore fruit and could have been the main reason the PVV failed to overtake the VVD.

 

The other issue of dispute was Dutch membership of the European Union (EU), about which Wilders promised to hold a referendum on Nexit. Rutte retorted with his own scare tactic: “You want the Netherlands out of Europe. You know what it will cost...don’t do it.”

 

GreenLeft and SP

 

On the left, both the SP and GreenLeft supported greater social welfare and environmental spending. GreenLeft’s election manifesto asked for “more from the large multinationals, banks and people with large investment portfolios”; proposed a four-year deadline for closing all coal-fired plants as well as an end to subsidies to fossil fuels; more offshore wind farms; and a 15-year target for the elimination of natural gas in heating.

 

GreenLeft also undertook to reduce class sizes; hire 20,000 new teachers, and halve tuition fees and increase scholarships for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. On health, the green party promised to reduce market competition in healthcare, lower premiums and hire 30,000 additional nurses.

 

Against the growing social divides it promised tougher sentences for hate crimes, “teaching asylum seekers Dutch and educating them about the Dutch constitution from day one” and hiring a thousand additional police officers “to work on safe neighbourhoods”.

 

The SP’s 10-point platform (“Seize Power”) had a lot in common with GreenLeft’s, promising a 10% increase in the minimum wage and social welfare payments; and end to the Netherlands’ tax haven status and a “millionaires’ tax”; affordable housing; better-resourced education with a 23-pupil per class target; neighbourhood policing and increased legal aid and sustainable energy.

 

Their main programmatic differences were the SP’s proposal to hold a referendum on a new European treaty (a countermove to Wilders’ proposal for a Nexit referendum), and GreenLeft’s more far-reaching vision of environmental and climate issues. For its part, GreenLeft stood for “more Europe”, even supporting the issuance of European debt.

 

And yet, the SP proved unable to capture much of the anti-PVV vote that went to GreenLeft (which scored highest of all parties among younger and first-time voters and women). The reasons will become clearer in post-election analysis, but one factor would have been the youthful, social-media savvy approach of GreenLeft’s 30-year-old leader Klaver, coupled with a modern, dynamic, Bernie Sanders-like campaign.

 

Klaver also tackled Wilders’ Islamophobia head-on, criticising in a March 9 interview with the Financial Times the concessions that Rutte has made to the Islamophobe: “You are not just fighting Geert Wilders, you are fighting his ideas. When it comes to populism we can fight it better.” He said in another interview: “What I would say to all my left-wing friends in Europe: don’t try to fake the populace. Stand for your principles. Be straight. Be pro-refugee. Be pro-Europe …We can stop populism.”

 

The SP approach was less direct. In an election campaign dominated by Wilders’ hate-messages the SP stressed, in the words of parliamentary spokeswoman on social affairs and integration Sadet Karabulut, the need for “combining forces behind a social, inclusive politics”.

 

The GreenLeft campaign generated electricity: it held a 5000-strong rally in Amsterdam, the biggest of the election campaign, and came in first in the Dutch capital with 19.7%. For its part, the SP came first in nine municipalities along the Dutch-German border, working-class areas where the PvdA had won in 2012. The highest vote for the SP in these regions was 27.5% in Boxmeer municipality (the hometown of leader Emile Roemer).

 

Conclusion

 

The possibility of the PVV winning on March 15 was the major concern of the Dutch establishment and the European powers-that-be, but it is not their only headache. The chance of a PVV win was itself part of a broader trend—towards the effective end of a Dutch party-political system controlled since 1918 by a trio of political currents: Christian-confessional, self-styled liberal (actually conservative) and social democrat. A handful of government crises aside, one or other of these forces--since 1977 the VVD, CDA and PvdA—has acted as big brother in governing coalitions with minor partners. At times, they have also formed coalitions among themselves.

 

Their hegemony to date has reconciled Dutch elites to the country’s very democratic electoral system of pure proportional representation with no threshold, such that to win one seat in the 150-seat lower house a party need only score 0.67% of the vote. The system generates many parties, 11 with seats in the outgoing lower house and 28 as candidate-lists on March 15.

 

However, the predominance of these central establishment forces has been waning further since the 2010 election, when the then-governing CDA lost half its seats and the VVD could only form government with the external non-cabinet support of the PVV. The 2012 election, brought on when Wilders withdrew this support, then led to the formation of the VVD-PvdA “red-blue coalition”: this was an echo of the “purple” coalitions of the late 1990s that led to the shake-up of the electoral system with the eruption of the xenophobic Pim Fortuyn List in 2002.

 

Two political cycles later—with another red-blue grand coalition grudgingly experienced and now violently rejected by PvdA voters—the pattern of Dutch politics is roughly repeating the experience of 2002 and 2010: the critical difference this time is the possibly terminal decline of Labour. The March 15 result has therefore thrown up big challenges for progressive politics in the Netherlands. It must now work out how to confront the existence-threatening collapse in support for the PvdA, the rise of ecological, climate-aware, genuinely progressive and fresh-feeling channels in GreenLeft and the PvdD as well as the apparent stagnation of the SP.

 

And it will have to tackle those challenges in the face of a new pro-austerity government and a racist opposition that won’t be going away any time soon.

 

Dick Nichols is Green Left Weekly’s European correspondent, based in Barcelona. SP member Will Wroth is based in Rotterdam. His analysis of the challenges facing the Dutch left after March 15 will soon appear on this web site. An initial version of this article has appeared on the Green Left Weekly web site.

Comments

The Netherlands – Dutch elections: a further shift to the right

By Alex De Jong
Sunday 19 March 2017
http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article40575

As expected, the Dutch elections of the fifteenth of March showed a shift to the right – but in a somewhat different way than foreseen. The fear that the far-right PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid, Party for Freedom) of Geert Wilders would become the largest party did not become reality. Wilders won 5 more seats, growing from 15 to 20 out of 150 seats. The right-wing VVD (Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie, People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy) of incumbent prime-minister Mark Rutte lost 8 seats but with 33 seats remained the largest party.

The most remarkable development was the implosion of the center-left Pvda (Partij van de Arbeid, Labour Party) from 38 to 9 seats. This loss was larger than expected; the party broke its own 2002-record and suffered the largest electoral loss in Dutch political history. But that the PvdA would lose badly was foreseen. In the elections of 2012 the party had tacked left to stave of a left-wing challenge from the SP (Socialistische Partij) but afterwards chose to form a government coalition with the VVD and for four years implemented right-wing policies. That the Labour Party would be punished for this was to be expected and this is nothing to mourn.

More worrying is that the rest of the left has not profited from the implosion of the PvdA. Many former PvdA-voters instead went to rightwing parties or did not vote at all. The right-wing as a whole gained new seats.

For many progressives the news of the growth of GroenLinks (GreenLeft, GL) from 4 to 14 seats was a spark of light. Polls indicate a quarter of the disappointed PvdA-voters chose GL this time. GL had a campaign that was not only attractive in its style (gutsy and optimistic) but also put forward political points such as climate change, anti-racism and in general a rejection of the nationalism that has come to dominate Dutch politics.

GL was organized in the nineties as a fusion of different left-wing parties, among them the Communist Party. The party moved to the political center and after the turn of the century embraced a self-described ’progressive liberal’ course. In 2012, GL supported a right wing coalition, enabling it to implement austerity measures and neoliberal reforms such as raising the retirement-age as well as the sending of Dutch police to Afghanistan. This orientation was punished in the following elections, which saw the party lose heavily, and since then GL has again adopted a leftist profile. But the party has not clearly said goodbye to the earlier orientation and during the elections, its leader Jesse Klaver attacked from the right people like Yanis Varoufakis and Jeremy Corbyn. He also didn’t rule out the possibility of a coalition with the right.

It is disappointing that SP lost a seat, going from 15 to 14. This was the third election in a row that the SP lost votes in national elections. This time, the loss was especially severe because the PvdA, for many years the most important rival of the SP, lost dozens of seats as well. For over a decade and a half, the SP’s strategy was aimed at capturing the base of the PvdA, but this strategy failed in the last elections. Politically, GL is considered to be in between PvdA and SP. It managed to attract many disappointed PvdA-voters with a campaign that had a relatively left-wing profile, so it is not very convincing to say the SP is simply too much to the left for these voters. Instead, GL appealed to them with themes that are neglected by the SP.

New parties and issues

One of these themes was racism. Correctly or not, GL has an image as the party of anti-racism and there is no doubt this was part of their appeal, not only for disappointed PvdA-voters, but also for many young people who voted for them. The SP-campaign had tried to make healthcare, already for years an issue on which the party has a strong profile, a central issue in the elections but failed to do this and the party was unable to grow. The SP not only neglected anti-racism, but prominent SP-figures even went along with anti-immigration sentiments. One SP-parliamentarian declared the SP was in favor of ’our own workers first’. Such statements cost the party votes.

Another issue was ecology. Another leftist party that grew in the elections was the Partij voor de Dieren (Party for the Animals, PvdD). Founded in 2002, they started out as a single-issue party opposing cruelty to animals and the treatment of animals in agro-business. It has developed into an ecologist party. It grew from 2 to 5 seats, another example of a party with an idealist, and especially ecological profile, attracting new voters. A weak point of this party is that outside the parliament, it hardly exists and only plays a very limited role in (ecological) movements. In addition, although it is considered more radical than GL, this party as well does not link its ecological demands to social struggles or to the contestation of capital.

These elections also saw an unusually high number of new parties participating. One of them is Artikel 1, named after the first article in the Dutch constitution, which declares that everybody deserves equal treatment. Anti-racism, as well as feminism and opposition to the discrimination of LGBTIQ people are the central issues of this party. Artikel 1 is also remarkable for the prominent role of people of color and women in it. Its head of the elections list and spokesperson, Sylvana Simmons, is a Black Surinamese-Dutch woman known for her anti-racist activism.

However, this party was organized too shortly before the elections and was unable to win a seat. This was disappointing for many people who see the need for its principled anti-racist positions, but not unexpected. Considering it only had a short time to prepare, the 0.3 per cent of the vote it took seems to indicate there is a potential for future growth.

Another new party is Denk; Dutch for ’Think’. This party was founded by two former PvdA-parliamentarians from Turkish descent and won three seats. This party combines a center-left social-economic program with opposition to Islamophobia. Simmons was associated with Denk, but left it, saying there was not enough room in the party for feminism and LGBTIQ issues. The party is often attacked in the Netherlands as a puppet of Turkish president Erdogan and supposed softness on Islamic fundamentalism. Clearly, many of these attacks are motivated by racism and Islamophobia, even though it is true the party is equivocating on issues such as the growing authoritarianism in Turkey and the Armenian genocide. Denk in particular attracted voters of Turkish descent who formerly supported the PvdA.

Gains for the right

Another clear winner of the elections is a party named D66, growing from 12 to 19 seats. This party is sometimes considered ’progressive’ but is a strong supporter of neoliberal economic policies. However, it combines this with liberal feminism and anti-racist rhetoric. Like GL, the party attracted many who feel it can oppose the far-right.

The far-right did not do as well as was expected, but still made progress. The PVV increased its seats by a third, taking votes from the center-right VVD but also from the PvdA. Elections were a disappointment for Wilders only compared to the extremely high expectations created by the polls and it is far too early to conclude that the rise of the far-right has come to an end. In addition, a new far-right party, Forum voor Democratie, entered the parliament with two seats. This party’s leader, Thierry Baudet, cultivates a respectable, intellectual image. He represents a sexist and racist current that is at least as far to the right as Wilders.

Not only did the far-fight bloc in parliament grow, but two of the traditional center-right parties, the VVD and the christian-democratic CDA, ran campaigns that were heavily based on nationalism, Islamophobia and anti-immigrant sentiments. This is a dynamic that can be missed if the analysis only focuses on numbers of seats or on who forms the government coalition. Wilder’s PVV was for the CDA and VVD the standard against which they measured themselves, and both tried to win PVV-voters over by presenting themselves as the ’respectable’ version of Wilders’ anti-immigration and islamophobic agenda. Without being part of the government, the PVV is still one of the country’s most influential parties. The diplomatic conflict VVD-primeminister Mark Rutte provoked with Turkey was a successful attempt to win over potential PVV-voters by posing as a strong Western leader opposing a Muslim country.

A reorganized center

For decades, the Dutch political center was based on three large parties; the PvdA, CDA and VVD. One of the traditional pillars of this center has now collapsed, and CDA and VVD are not as large as the political mainstream parties used to be. Since 15 years, the political center is under pressure from the left, by the SP, and from the right by the PVV and its predecessors. Because of the political system in the country (nationwide proportional representation) coalitions are necessary to form a government. However, the relative decline of support for the center-parties and the rise of new parties make this system unstable. The previous cabinet was the first since the turn of the century that completed its term.

The election results show the political center in the country is being reorganized. The center-right parties CDA and VVD have reinvented themselves by taking over elements from the far-right.

Forming a new coalition in this fragmented landscape will be difficult, at least four different parties are needed to form a majority coalition. Whatever its exact composition, the new the government of the Netherlands will be right wing. It will give more power to big corporations, social inequality and precarity will grow. This will be combined with anti-refugee and anti-immigrant policies and a continuation of the existing Islamophobic and nationalist political climate. This means, among other things, discrimination in the job market, police violence against people of color and other forms of social exclusion of minorities. The right and far-right will continue to benefit from this dynamic.

Despite the progress of some of them, none of the leftist parties have an adequate answer to this situation. The SP thinks that racism can be ignored, or even gives in to it. GroenLinks has not convincingly renounced its previous economic liberalism. It also lacks the social roots and links with trade-unionists that the SP has.

Considering the decline of the parliamentary left, social struggles will become even more important. That there is potential for such movements has been shown in the last months, in mobilizations around climate change, racism, and TTIP. The Women’s March in Amsterdam of March 11 was one of the largest demonstrations in recent years, with over 15.000 people. Combined with the building of such movements, the Dutch left urgently needs a process of collective discussion and political clarification.

dutch elections

This is great to hear that under this elections that took place, the dutch citizens has reverted all the situation they wanted to change, cause not only this election is the result of the new prove that the system is not working, and there must be another change to take place in this disorder world. The racism in europe is unacceptable, we have many disorder in this situation.

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