Boris Kagarlitsky
In this interview with Federico Fuentes, Kagarlitsky provides insight into the domestic factors behind the Russian regime’s decision to invade Ukraine, why President Vladimir Putin is seeking an “everlasting war”, the critical role being played by the left in anti-war organising, and prospects for social upheaval in Russia. A much shorter version of this interview first appeared in Green Left.
By Boris Kagarlitsky, translated by Dan Erdman
By Boris Kagarlitsky
June 4, 2022 — Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal reposted from Russian Dissent — With the US Senate’s approval of the latest “lend-lease” law, and with Ukraine set to receive a bonus offering of modern Western weapons and financial assistance, the question of who will win the war can now be considered resolved. The current Russian government not only lacks the material resources, but also the human resources necessary for a protracted conflict. It has no goal or ideology for which it would be possible to convince its citizens to fight. Mass mobilization is impossible because it would inevitably cause mass protests, and in any case neither the economy nor the military infrastructure is prepared to maintain the existence of a massive army. Aggressive propaganda, whether in the form of appeals to common inhumanity or threats against the whole world, might poison the consciousness of the older generation, but does not work as a motivation for people who will have to be compelled to fight or work for the war effort. On the contrary, discontent and even resistance is growing (as evidenced by the repeated arsons of military registration and enlistment offices). The defense industry, which has been in decline for decades, is unable to make up for the loss of equipment, and sanctions have further hobbled the production of the most important components, without which modern weapons manufacturing is impossible. Of course, occasionally the industry finds ways to circumvent sanctions, but production remains extremely expensive, and most importantly, suffers from supply instability.