US-China alignment under Trump and lessons from Ukraine for the Philippines

The reality on the ground is that Ukraine has not been able to defeat Russia. Some would argue Russia has won the war. Ukraine President Zelensky is now also fighting for his political survival. After the meeting with US President Donald Trump, an MP has moved a motion in the Ukrainian parliament to impeach Zelensky.

The primary concern for the US and Trump administration is its economic interests, specifically for Ukraine to repay the money it invested in the war. The Trump administration wants to take control of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. The fact that they could not sign an agreement is a problem for the US. The US wants this agreement signed to get its hands on the “loot” and get out.

Vladimir Lenin said in his analysis of imperialism that the rights of small nations are just small change in the machinations of big powers. This very much applies to the Philippines. Trump made his position clear soon after he was re-elected. During a media briefing at Mar-a-Lago, he declared: “China and the United States can together solve all the problems of the world, when you think about it.”

Trump’s senior advisor, Elon Musk, has huge investments in China and strong personal ties with the Chinese leadership. He has also positioned himself as a potential partner/purchaser of TikTok in the US. Musk recently described Taiwan as an “ integral part of China”, while instructing Space X suppliers to move out of Taiwan.

A ‘cold peace’

The Pentagon’s new Southeast Asia chief John Andrew Byers is advocating “ cold peace” with China, defining this as “a state of international relations in which, while there are major unresolved geopolitical tension, the focus is on the use of diplomatic and other non-military means of resolving conflict and there are conscious attempts to further moderate the potential for conflict through crisis prevention and negotiations.” The end goal of this “cold peace” is “managed competition” and “peaceful coexistence”.

This requires that China “give up ambitions of being the only Asia-Pacific power” and accept that the United States will continue to remain a “great power”, abandoning its fantasy that the US “will exit the ranks of the great powers”. For the US, it requires that it “abandon the delusion of engineering political change within China.” Most importantly, this goal of “cold peace” is based on the assumption that China will not invade Taiwan in the near term, or forcibly unify Taiwan with China.

‘Cooperation spirals’

This “cold peace” is to be achieved through the process of “cooperation spirals”, or “incremental actions and outcomes that reduce tensions.” Byers gives very specific examples of how a “cooperation spiral” could begin, through the reopening of the Chinese consulate in Houston and the US consulate in Chengdu.

Byers goes even further in what he describes as the “security sphere” to decrease the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific, provided China reduces tensions in the South China Sea. Specifically, the US might begin “by proposing to remove US military forces or weapons systems from the Philippines.” In exchange, the China Coast Guard could have “fewer patrols” when operating in the shoal’s vicinity.

If China refuses to cooperate, the US could increase support to the Philippines by providing “decommissioned US Coast Guard vessels”. If China cooperates, the US “might dial down its provision of military capabilities to the Philippines and lean on Manila to talk more with Beijing.”

Concluding points

1. This is the view of the Trump faction of the ruling class in the US. The Democrats are still there and will probably maintain the Joe Biden line.

2. Within the Trump faction, there may be differences too, for example ideological hawks versus the business interests of Big-Tech billionaires such as Musk.

3. The situation in the US is unstable and has global ramifications.

4. Like Ukraine, the Philippines could be reduced to a pawn in the US power play with China.

5. How do we leverage this against both President Bongbong Marcos and the Liberals in the country, given the anti-China sentiment that has been fanned by both factions. This is a challenge for us.

Reihana Mohideen is head of the Partido Lakas ng Masa (Party of the Labouring Masses, PLM) International Desk.