After Aleppo, what will happen to the Kurds of northwest Syria? (Plus statements from Kurdish and Syrian organisations)
First published in The New Arab.
The momentous takeover of Syria’s second city, Aleppo, and surrounding areas on 29 November by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed self-styled Syrian National Army (SNA) has significant ramifications for Syria and possibly the wider region.
More immediate, however, is its impact on the hundreds of thousands of Kurds who live in northwest Syria.
As Aleppo collapsed to the lightning HTS-led offensive, the Turkish-backed SNA seized on the momentum to capture the town of Tel Rifaat and surrounding villages from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Tens of thousands of Kurds have fled from that area. They are enduring freezing winter conditions on their way to the relative safety of the Kurdish-administered territories east of the Euphrates River.
HTS originated as an offshoot of Al-Qaeda called Jabhat al-Nusra and has fought the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the early years of the civil war that began in 2011. The group has established itself as Assad’s most formidable adversary in the conflict and has long controlled large parts of Syria’s strategic northwestern Idlib province.
The SNA consists of numerous armed groups that Turkey has used as proxies, mainly against the YPG and the larger multi-ethnic Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG is the backbone. Turkey used these rebels to invade the northwestern Kurdish enclave of Afrin in 2018, displacing tens of thousands of its native population, primarily into the adjacent Tel Rifaat area. These same Kurds now find themselves displaced once again.
Aleppo city has two Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods, Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh. Altogether, there are approximately 500,000 Kurds in this large northwestern area west of the Euphrates River, now largely under HTS and SNA control.
“Kurds have had a bad experience with HTS folks from the Jabhat al-Nusra days,” Mohammed A. Salih, Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert on Kurdish and regional affairs, told The New Arab.
“The fundamental problem with many Assad opposition groups is that they are chauvinistic toward Kurds, perhaps as a result of decades of Baathist exclusionary nationalist teachings,” he said.
In Salih’s estimation, most of these groups are Islamist extremists, putting them at odds with the majority of Syria’s Kurdish minority.
“Kurds want to deal with a party in the opposition that is willing to take into account their demands for cultural and political rights as a distinct community within Syria,” Salih said. “And even though the majority of Syrian Kurds are Muslims, they are staunchly secular in their way of life and expect this to be respected.”
In his view, Kurdish civilians are undoubtedly in danger due to the current circumstances in Aleppo and other areas west of the Euphrates.
“Kurds cannot trust the HTS or the SNA,” Salih said. “They have good reason for this based on the ideological nature of these groups and their past records both in dealing with them and the non-Sunni, non-Arab and non-Turkmen populations of Syria,” he added. “It’s a very fluid and unpredictable situation.”
Consequently, he believes the “best option” for Kurds is to evacuate east of the Euphrates, where the SDF is in a much better position to protect them. Reports suggest that the YPG has begun pulling forces from the Kurdish-majority neighbourhoods in coordination with HTS to allow Kurdish residents to evacuate.
It’s unclear if HTS can provide security guarantees for any Kurds who decide to remain in their homes in the city.
“In Aleppo, it depends on whether the YPG can reach a reliable understanding with HTS there for Kurdish civilians not to be harmed. There is no guarantee for that,” Salih said.
“In reality, it is more likely that a humanitarian disaster will materialise as a result of the influx of tens of thousands of displaced people to SDF-controlled areas in west Euphrates, which are already stretched thin in terms of resources and governance capabilities,” he added.
Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, described the present situation for Kurds in northern Syria as “precarious” but believes they have a better chance of surviving under HTS rule than other Syrian minorities.
“In theory, HTS’s Islamist worldview is actually less of a menace to Kurds per se, those that do not have ties to the YPG, since Kurds are Muslims,” Orton told TNA. “Christians and particularly Alawis have the most to fear from HTS rule, again in theory.”
He noted that HTS has made a “concerted effort to present a tolerant face” towards minorities in areas it has controlled, such as Christians in Idlib.
“How long any of this lasts is anyone’s guess: whatever the formal status of HTS’s relations with Al-Qaeda, it is a jihadist-derived entity, and there is every reason for scepticism,” Orton said.
“Assuming HTS does not initiate a concerted campaign of persecution against Kurds in Sheikh Maqsoud and other Kurdish-majority areas it has captured, we should expect most people to stay put,” he added.
“Settled communities will endure great hardships to maintain their homes and only move when they really have no other choice.”
Both analysts see the Turkish-backed SNA as a markedly more significant threat to Kurds than HTS.
“What we are seeing is that there is an actual demographic change campaign against Kurds underway in areas west of the Euphrates, particularly those areas under the control of the SNA. The SNA represents the most anti-Kurdish faction among the anti-Assad opposition groups,” Salih said.
“Kurds in the Tel Rifaat and the entire Shahba region are in danger of retribution by SNA groups whose entire mission at this point at Turkey’s behest appears to be fighting Kurds,” he added. “A mass displacement of Kurds from these areas is already going on.”
Orton also believes the SNA is a “much more worrying” threat to Kurds.
“There is little discipline in SNA ranks, and its fighters carry a much more bitterly ethno-sectarian outlook,” he said. “The chances of indiscriminate attacks on Kurdish populations by the SNA are much higher, and even without a targeted assault, the SNA’s governance methods are much more predatory and chaotic,” he added.
“It will not be so easy to live a ‘normal’ life in areas the SNA administers, and there is every reason to expect a larger outflow of Kurds.”
As if matters couldn’t get any worse, this new crisis could unwittingly end up empowering remnants of the Islamic State (IS) if the SDF has to focus its attention and resources elsewhere. The US has partnered with the SDF against IS for a decade now. The SDF was the main fighting force against IS, dismantling the entirety of its territorial self-styled caliphate on Syrian soil by 2019.
“It has to be assumed that the SDF will take contingency steps to protect its borders, and to that extent, its focus on IS diminishes. Odds are that IS will try to make its presence felt in the current melee,” Orton said.
“It seems likely IS will make its move in the northwest, at the centre of the action, but it could well be within the SDF statelet, especially if developments extend the instability further east,” he added.
Salih also believes the post-29 November turmoil is “inevitably impacting” SDF priorities.
“If Kurds are under attack in northwestern Syria, SDF fighters will have less incentive to prioritise the fight against IS,” he said.
In Salih’s view, this situation “highlights a fundamental miscalculation” in America’s strategy toward Syria’s Kurds, namely focusing exclusively on their joint fight against IS. By doing so, Washington ignored the “dire governance and humanitarian conditions” in the SDF-controlled areas caused by Turkish strikes and now the mass displacement and killing of Kurds in northwest Syria.
“This approach is unsustainable and counterproductive,” Salih said. “If continued, it will only further bolster IS and recreate the conditions for its resurgence.”
Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.
Syrian Democratic Forces: ‘We will stand firm and fulfill our historic duty to safeguard the region and its people’
First published at SDF Press Centre on December 1.
This week has witnessed a large-scale attack and substantial shifts have happened. Damascus government forces have deteriorated in Aleppo and other regions. It is no doubt that this attack is orchestrated by the Turkish occupation state, with the ultimate goal of occupying the entire Syrian territory. However, the primary target of this attack remains the areas under the Autonomous Administration to prevent the peaceful coexistence of the region’s diverse peoples, including Kurds, Arabs, Syriacs, and other communities. The Autonomous Administration’s regions are facing a large-scale attack, with a particular focus on the areas of Al-Shahba’a and Aleppo. This constitutes a grave threat to the survival of our people.
This critical moment represents a historic turning point for all Syrians, especially those residing in the Democratic Autonomous Administration. The sole objective of this attack is to our safe areas and ultimately occupy Syrian territory. The aggressor seeks to inflict suffering upon all the region’s peoples.
For several days, our brave fighters have been fiercely resisting the ongoing attacks on the Manbij front and west of the Euphrates. Our Syrian Democratic Forces have consistently fulfilled their duty to liberate and protect the region. We reaffirm our commitment to these historical responsibilities, regardless of the cost. We will stand firm against these attacks and fulfill our historic duty to safeguard the region and its people. There should be no doubt about our resolve. We urge everyone to heed the call for public mobilization and to coordinate closely with the SDF and Internal Security Forces. It is imperative that we stand united in these challenging times.
In these historic days, we call upon our people to join forces in the defense of their villages, cities, and the entire region. We must participate in the people’s revolutionary war and fulfill our duty to protect our homeland. We call upon the youth of the region, including Kurds, Arabs, Syriacs, Assyrians, Armenians, and Circassians, to fulfill their historical role by joining the resistance fronts and enlisting in the ranks of the SDF, YPG, and YPJ.
The current war is a noble struggle for humanity and human dignity. It is a war to protect the values of freedom and civilization against the obscurantist ideologies of ISIS and Erdogan. This is a war for light and liberation, a war that guarantees a future of coexistence and brotherhood among peoples.
We urge the young men and women of the region to join the SDF and contribute to building a free future. We are confident that with the active participation of our youth, we can repel this attack and thwart the plans of the Turkish occupation and its mercenaries.
SDF General Command
December 1, 2024
Syrian Democratic Council: ‘We hold the Syrian regime accountable for the ongoing crisis in the country’
First published at Syrian Democratic Council on December 2.
The Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) strongly condemns the resurgence of violence in Syria. It expresses deep concern over the overall developments in the country, including the takeover of Aleppo city and the countryside of Hama by Turkish-backed armed groups without resistance.
The SDC condemns the threats faced by Syrian civilians across the country. Also, it calls on the international community to take immediate and effective action to halt the escalating violence in northwestern Syria. It urges the exertion of maximum pressure on all conflicting parties to cease fire. The goal is to engage in comprehensive new peace talks that represent the Syrian people and their aspirations. These talks should include the participation of all relevant Syrian parties without exclusion.
The SDC holds the Syrian regime accountable for the ongoing crisis in the country, blaming it for rejecting all initiatives aimed at preventing a humanitarian disaster in Syria. Furthermore, it directly holds the Turkish occupation accountable for the recent escalation of violence in northwestern Syria.
Additionally, it expresses deep concern over the dire humanitarian situation faced by the displaced people from al-Shahbaa region. Moreover, it calls upon the United Nations and the UN Security Council to intervene immediately. It urges the international community to take swift action to protect all Syrian civilians from the imminent threat posed by Turkish-backed groups, which have previously committed war crimes, genocide, and forced displacement.
The SDC warns of the dangers of the Islamic State ISIS) exploiting the recent escalation in northwestern Syria. In addition, it calls on the US-led Global Coalition to strengthen its support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in their fight against ISIS. Consequently, it expresses serious concerns regarding the anxieties of Iraqi people, and emphasizes the need for cooperation between Iraqi forces and the SDF, in coordination with the Global Coalition, to enhance the fight against terrorism.
On the other hand, the SDC affirms the importance of the Russian Federation’s role in supporting a comprehensive political solution. At the same time, it reiterates its openness to engage in dialogue with Turkey, rejecting all pretexts used to justify further occupation of Syrian territory.
Therefore, under these critical circumstances, the SDC assures these matters for the Syrian people as follows:
1- The continuation of conflicts among Syrian parties only serves the enemies of the Syrian people and exacerbates the suffering of civilians. Therefore, the SDC calls for prioritizing engaging in the national dialogue over the use of force.
2- The SDC calls for an end to all violations targeting specific components of the Syrian society. Also, it reaffirms that Kurds and other national and religious minorities are an integral part of Syria’s history and people.
3- The Syrian crisis can only be resolved through a just political solution that guarantees the rights of all Syrians and achieves justice, freedom, and equality. This solution should be free from any external interference or attempts to impose a new reality by force.
In conclusion, Syrian national dialogue is the sole pathway to resolving the Syrian crisis experienced by the Syrian people as a whole. The SDC is open to dialogue with all Syrians to strengthen Syria’s unity, security, and sovereignty. It also appeals to all patriotic Syrians in all regions of Syria to resist incitement, revenge, and malicious propaganda. It also emphasizes the importance of adhering to the political solution that is in line with UN Resolution 2254, which ensures a democratic transition. This transition should strengthen Syria’s unity and sovereignty, within the framework of a decentralized democratic political regime that meets the aspirations of all Syrians.
Syrian Democratic Council
December 2, 2024
Women’s Protection Units: ‘Led by women, our people have shown great resilience in the face of these attacks’
First published at Women’s Protection Units on December 2.
Over the past several days, our region, along with all of Syrian territory, has been subjected to a large-scale attack from multiple fronts. It began in Aleppo, where the Syrian people were left face to face with horrific massacres. Simultaneously, these attacks targeted our areas in North and East Syria, where we have demonstrated relentless resistance against these extensive assaults, particularly in the regions of Shahba and Aleppo. Our people, led by women, have shown great resilience in the face of these attacks.
Our people in Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh, who have gained extensive experience in resistance and warfare over the years, have once again organized themselves against these assaults. Operating under the name of the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh Protection Forces, they have thwarted dozens of attacks by mercenaries of the Turkish occupation state.
Undoubtedly, the war continues on multiple fronts. Unfortunately, several young men and women of the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh Liberation Forces have fallen captive to these mercenaries. These barbaric mercenaries, who have no regard for the ethics or laws of war, have heinously violated the dignity of the women prisoners, using them as tools for propaganda on their media outlets. They have shamelessly declared to the captive women that they would once again sell them in slave markets. Such actions are utterly inhumane and must not be tolerated.
As the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), we strongly condemn the brutal acts of the Turkish occupation mercenaries against the captured women and pledge that we will avenge them. We call upon international organizations, particularly Amnesty International and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), as well as all women’s and human rights organizations, to fulfill their duties in protecting these women who defended their neighborhoods and cities. We insist on the necessity of safeguarding their rights as prisoners of war.
The atrocities committed today by the Turkish occupation mercenaries against the captured young women mirror those carried out by the terrorist organization “ISIS” in 2014 in Sinjar, Mosul, and Raqqa, where thousands of women were sold in slave markets. These actions represent the patriarchal mindset that reached its peak with “ISIS” and Erdogan’s mercenaries. They are well aware that Kurdish women have written heroic epics against their barbaric practices, resisting to the very end. This is why their inhumane practices have escalated to the level of outright hostility against women.
We direct our call to women’s rights organizations, civil society organizations, prominent figures, freedom advocates, and democrats to protect the captive women. It is imperative to expose the brutality of the Turkish occupation state and its mercenaries on a global scale, revealing the extent of their terrorism and holding Erdogan and the Turkish occupation state accountable for this war and the atrocities committed against the captured young women.
As the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), we once again condemn the captivity of the female fighters from the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh Protection Forces. We affirm that we will hold the Turkish occupation state and its mercenaries accountable on the frontlines of resistance. In this context, during these historic days marked by extensive attacks on our regions and Syria as a whole, we declare that we stand on the frontlines to protect all women and our people. We also call upon all young women, wherever they may be, to join the ranks of the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) and take their place on the frontlines of defense. Only in this way can we protect our land and dignity.
The General Command of the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ)
02.12.2024
Kurdistan Democratic Communities Union: ‘It is necessary to be organized, prepare self-defense and prevent occupation’
Published at KCK on December 1.
Once again, it is aimed at deepening the chaos and conflicts in Syria through the deployment of reactionary fascist gangs. For this purpose, the gangs that are being fed by Turkey are directed firstly against Aleppo and are now headed towards Hama and other cities. Simultaneously, an invasion attack was launched against Shahba. At the same time, there are attacks on all of Northern and Eastern Syria. Unfortunately, the Syrian state lacked the will to face the attacks, did not take a stance to defend the people, and abandoned all the places where the gangs were headed. As a result, all the peoples of Syria are facing the threat of a massacre.
A global plan is being executed against the Middle East and Syria. The Turkish state is taking advantage of this situation to realize its genocidal, colonialist, racist, and expansionist aims. It wants to eliminate the gains of the peoples, particularly the Kurdish people, and realize the Kurdish genocide. Behind the attacks launched by these gangs stands the Turkish state and the aforementioned aims of the Turkish state. It is very clear that this offensive will be the cause of more massacres and genocide in Syria and the Middle East. They aim to break the peoples against each other and deepen the existing problems. Giving a role to the Turkish state both in Syria and the Middle East will lead to extremely dangerous consequences.
As a movement, we have always been in favor of all peoples living together, equally and freely, in Syria, and we have strived for this to be realized. The creation of a democratic Syria is the only correct solution for the benefit of all Syrian peoples. We believe that the construction of a democratic Syria is a project that would also contribute to the democratization of the Middle East and the solution of its problems. The Turkish state, on the other hand, intervenes in the situation in Syria with racist, genocidal, and expansionist ambitions and thereby blocks the democratization of Syria and the development of democratization in the Middle East. It approaches Syria with an anti-Kurdish mentality and has set as its main goal the elimination of the democratic autonomous administration. This has led to the deepening of the insoluble situation in Syria. The aim of the Turkish state is to eliminate the democratic autonomous administration, to prevent the development of a democratic solution in Syria, and to take Syria under its domination. The attacks launched again recently by the gangs serve also this purpose. The Turkish state is preparing to take action against Rojava with the attack of the gangs and to eliminate the revolution by occupying Rojava.
An extraordinary process is taking place both in Rojava and in all of Syria. The Turkish state is taking advantage of the situation and trying to implement its policies of occupation and genocide. For this purpose, it is trying to carry out massacres and eliminate the autonomous administration by invading Northern and Eastern Syria by both backing the gangs and taking action itself. Against this, our peoples must organize everywhere on the basis of self-defense, defend themselves, and prevent any occupation and massacres. The dangers that arise can only be overcome by developing the self-defense of the people. Our people must be vigilant; they must defend themselves without waiting for help from elsewhere. Our people must act together and integrate with the defense forces wherever they are. The process has made it vital to develop the Revolutionary People’s War. Based on this, our peoples must organize and act on the basis of the strategy of revolutionary people’s war by developing their self-defense.
Co-Presidency, KCK Executive Council
Kurdistan National Congress: Escalation in Syria as Islamists loyal to Turkey launch attack on Kurdish areas
First published at KNK on November 29.
Following the outbreak of the heaviest fighting in Syria in several years, Kurdish areas are now under acute threat from attacks by jihadist groups cooperating with Turkey. While the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda formerly known as al-Nusra Front, has been advancing on Aleppo since Wednesday and fighting with the Assad regime’s forces, the Turkish-loyal mercenaries of the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA) are currently preparing a major attack on the Kurdish region of Tal Rifaat in northwestern Syria. The Turkish army is already bombing the region from the air and on the ground. Attacks on the Kurdish town of Ain Issa have also been reported. According to local sources, Turkey has also opened the border to northwestern Syria, allowing more jihadist fighters to enter Syria.
Tal Rifaat is home to several hundred thousand Kurdish refugees who were forced to flee in 2018 following Turkey’s war of aggression on Efrîn (Afrin) in violation of international law. Since then, the SNA, an alliance of various Islamist organizations and former IS fighters, and the Turkish army have controlled the region. Human rights organizations fear that the SNA’s attacks could once again drive refugees out of Efrîn. Ethnic cleansing of the Kurdish population took place in Efrin during the Turkish occupation. Since then, Turkey has expelled the majority of Kurds in the region and settled people of Arab origin, leaving the Kurdish population as a minority in the region. Systematic human rights violations such as abductions, expulsions, torture and sexual violence under the rule of Islamist militias have been reported from the region. Now the people of Tal Rifaat face a similar fate. Aleppo’s Kurdish population, which lives mainly in the neighborhoods of Shasmeqsûd and Eşrefiyê, is also threatened by the advance of Haiat Tahrir Al-Sham, an offshoot of al-Qaeda. This group has repeatedly attacked areas of Kurdish self-rule in the past during the Syrian civil war.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a jihadist alliance that has controlled Idlib province in northwestern Syria since 2017, formed by the merger of several Islamist groups, including the al-Qaeda affiliate Nusra, which rebranded as Fateh al-Sham in 2016. Listed as a “terrorist” organization by the UN Security Council, HTS has expanded its influence into SNA-held northern Syria, often with the tacit approval of Turkey. HTS seeks to project an image of respectability and governance reliability, despite reports of an increasingly totalitarian regime and Islamist theocracy in Idlib. The international community should be wary of HTS’s expansion into Turkish-occupied territory, as it has been linked to anti-Semitic propaganda and has ties to al-Qaeda, despite efforts to distance itself from its jihadist roots. Notably, a perpetrator involved in a foiled terrorist attack in Munich expressed sympathy for HTS, highlighting the group’s continued relevance in the broader landscape of extremist threats.