The United States presidential election after Biden’s withdrawal — The energy has changed. The underlying politics have not.

First published at Convergence Magazine.

The Joe Biden-to-Kamala Harris handoff has produced a dramatic shift in mood among all opponents of MAGA’s white Christian Nationalist agenda. The gloom about prospects for defeating authoritarianism in 2024 that hung in the air for months has been replaced by a surge of energy and hope.

That hope can produce a big win in November, but only if it is translated into effective action grounded in realism. The balance of forces that existed before Biden withdrew remains the same. Likewise unchanged are the differing political programs of those contending for power—the MAGA-controlled GOP, the Biden-Harris (now Harris-?) wing of the Democratic Party, and the still-developing progressive trend that started to take its current shape in 2016.

To begin sorting through the complexities of the moment, let’s examine what forced Biden to step down.

Ceasefire movement laid the groundwork

The unprecedented movement for a ceasefire and an end to US complicity with the Israeli genocide in Gaza laid the groundwork for Biden’s withdrawal. The sustained protests consistently spotlighted the moral bankruptcy and political cowardice of a President whose “red lines” were just hot air. They were irrefutable evidence that Biden had alienated large numbers in constituencies absolutely essential to any electoral victory.

That meant the pump was already primed for change when Biden’s debate debacle showed the world that he was unable to effectively combat Trump even on the issues where he had actual accomplishments or had majority support.

That combination punctured the bubble of denial that had pervaded the Democratic Party leadership for the last year. For several weeks, leaks and speculation about their ensuing rethink filled the headlines.

On the broad Left, the conversation about what was underway reflected the widespread opinion that mainstream Democrats don’t offer a program that can inspire the working-class majority and are incompetent at messaging even when they do something positive. But the Democratic leadership’s apparent paralysis while facing the prospect of a landslide defeat seemed to bolster the idea that mainstream Democrats are mired in denial about the danger from the Right, and only get combative when they battle the Left.

But then the hammer came down. Led by their toughest and savviest heavyweight, Nancy Pelosi, top Democrats faced facts and moved to push Biden out. And once they succeeded, they quickly got behind Kamala Harris and gave her the green light: Make this a fight.

And Kamala Harris came out swinging.

Three lessons

There are three lessons here.

One, even before a militant grassroots movement achieves its immediate goal (in this case, a ceasefire) it can alter political dynamics in the country.

Two, by playing a sparkplug role in forcing Biden to withdraw, the movement for a ceasefire and Palestinian rights showed once again that it is at the cutting edge in the fight for peace and for consistent opposition to fascism.

Three, a Left that opts to sit out the fight because it objects to the weaknesses and inconsistencies in mainstream Democrats’ opposition to fascism will have little credibility with the millions whose spirits have been lifted by the one-two punch of Biden being forced out and Harris launching what is shaping up as the most combative Democratic presidential campaign in decades.

This is energy at scale

The speed and scale of the energy surge underway has outstripped anything since the first Women’s March on January 21, 2017 and the uprising that began immediately after the police murder of George Floyd on May 25, 2020.

Within days of the baton being passed, 44,000 Black women joined a Zoom that raised $1.5 million and more than 20,000 Black men joined a call and raised over $1 million. Groups that had been struggling to recruit people to postcard, text and canvass got flooded with volunteers. Showing Up For Racial Justice (SURJ) sponsored a series of three calls for white people and more than 20,000 registered. A “White Women Answer the Call” session initiated by anti-gun violence activist and founder of Moms Demand Action Shannon Watts broke the record for the largest Zoom call ever with 164,000 participants.

This outpouring reflects the deep and wide hunger for a fighting response to what millions of people in the US regard as an existential threat to their rights and livelihoods. It’s not that tens of thousands studied Kamala’s political positions and decided they were better than Biden’s, though many of course hope they are. The shift in mood that is translating into action is not driven by a change in policy. The surge is driven by a call to fight.

Voices in the progressive wing of the anti-MAGA front – electeds like Bernie, AOC and Cori Bush, labor leaders like Shawn Fain, people’s organizations like the Working Families Party and Progressive Democrats of America – have been working to rouse the electorate all along. But it’s hard to build excitement when the electoral standard-bearer’s posture signals the exact opposite of the militancy needed. Once Kamala showed she could take the gloves off, the dam burst.

What about the politics?

The contrast between Harris and Biden on fighting mode is not matched by a comparable difference in their political programs. Harris has, after all, been a loyal part of the current administration and has long functioned within the parameters of the Democratic mainstream. And initial indications are that she is assembling her campaign team and the advisers who will flank her if she is elected from the same pool of insiders that have surrounded Biden.

That said, Harris comes from a different political generation and has not been as cocooned as Biden from current cultural trends and the sentiments in younger generations. That shows in some of her rhetoric, and it means that she is likely to be more susceptible to pressure on several key issues than Biden has been.

Both the inertia and the potential openings in the above combination have already shown up in Harris’ positioning on the Gaza genocide and US support for Israel. She continues to pledge “unwavering” support for Israel, she issued a terrible statement denouncing the protests against Netanyahu’s speech to Congress, and she gives no sign she is breaking with the administration on any concrete action item. But she did break tradition and skip Netanyahu’s speech; her on-camera remarks after meeting privately with him lifted up the importance of Palestinian life in a way Biden never could manage, and her stress on achieving a ceasefire has reportedly made Israeli officials nervous.

Only continuing pressure will reveal whether Harris can be moved from words to real action. A new vehicle for such pressure is the Not Another Bomb initiative just launched by the Uncommitted Movement. Like the hundreds of thousands of uncommitted primary votes that played a big part in priming the pump for Biden to withdraw, this new campaign has the potential to turn the shifting sentiment among left-of-centner constituencies and young people generally and the Democratic voting base in particular into a powerful political force.

The potential for change here is underscored by looking again at Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi skipped Netanyahu’s speech, saying afterwards that it was “by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honored with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.” She stated that Netanyahu’s time would be better spent achieving a ceasefire. That kind of stance coming from this powerful Democratic stalwart is clear evidence that the movement for Palestine has made a difference, and is a huge incentive not just to keep up but to intensify our efforts. And another big battle on this front, Cori Bush vs. AIPAC, is right around the corner.

The same goes for immigration, real action to combat climate change, and every other issue on which progressives differ with mainstream Democrats. Defeating MAGA is an essential step on the road to changing the country, but so is building the clout to force deep-going change as the fascists are pushed back.

Progressives are seizing the moment

Because of the gains progressives have made since 2016—including important shifts in the labor movement—we now have both influential figures and organizational infrastructure to make a difference in this new climate. The sophistication now exists to move in a way that strengthens the overall anti-MAGA front, grows the clout of social justice organizations, and moves the Democratic mainstream closer to our positions on key policy issues.

This does not require tactical uniformity in the progressive camp. As of this writing, for example, the United Auto Workers and Rashida Tlaib are withholding their endorsements, stressing the pressure side of this moment of new opportunity. Other Squad members—Cori Bush, Ilhan Omar, AOC and Ayanna Presley —have all endorsed Kamala, as have the AFL-CIO and numerous national unions (Service Employees International Union, American Federation of Teachers, National Education Association) and grassroots progressive organizations (Community Change Action, March for Our Lives, Black Voters Matter).

Of particular note is the increased cooperation among progressive national and local groups reflected in common messaging and coordination of practical efforts. On July 25, the Working Families Party, Center for Popular Democracy Action, and People’s Action jointly announced their endorsement of Harris and “pledged to mobilize their national member bases to knock on over 5 million doors in key battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.”

The Working Families Party also has been joined by SURJ, Seed the Vote and the Movement for Black Lives (M4BL) in a common 2024 effort of political education and action situated within a long-term strategy to gain governing power. In explaining WFP’s plan to “make 2024 a win for working people” and forge a new center of gravity within the progressive movement, WfP director Maurice Mitchell wrote:

We must block MAGA extremists from seizing governing power, and we must build the most viable, durable political vehicle that is beholden and accountable to the people and not the wealthy and corporations.

Where are the socialists?

When faced with the threat (or reality) of authoritarian or fascist rule, socialists, communists, and revolutionaries in most times and places have sought to galvanize the broadest possible front in defense of democratic space, and to rally the most progressive forces in their society to contend for influence and leadership within that front.

Some socialists are taking that kind of approach to US politics today. Framing the 2024 election as one essential-to-win fight in the long-term battle to win working-class political power, several socialist groups are throwing themselves into the anti-MAGA fight with all they’ve got.

These include the Communist Party USA, whose resolution on the 2024 elections contains a “call to action to help build and actively participate in the broad all-people’s front to block fascism”; the Committees of Correspondence for Democracy and Socialism whose editorial statement is titled “The Core of Our 2024 Elections: Democracy vs. Fascism”; and Liberation Road, which has issued a statement titled “ Block, Broaden, Build: the 2024 Elections and the Threefold Tasks of the Left.”

These three groups are also joined by the newly formed North Star Socialist Organization, which emerged out of a years-long process of strategy discussion and cadre development. Their Movement Mission 2024 statement says: “Block the Right and Build the Left must be leftists’ guiding orientation for 2024 and upcoming years. Blocking the Right this year must include defeating the Donald Trump and MAGA campaign to commandeer the power of the presidency…”

All these formations have the potential for growing their influence in the newly energized anti-MAGA front. The Liberation Road and North Star groups are especially well- positioned to boost the influence and anti-MAGA contributions of some of the progressive world’s most dynamic sectors: many of their members are already embedded in labor and many of the state-based power-building organizations and issue-focused organizing networks that relate to the Working Families Party-led motion noted above.

But these groups, even taken together, are far smaller than the largest socialist group in the US, Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Unfortunately, the current majority on the leadership body of DSA does not agree with positioning the organization within the anti-MAGA front and assigns little importance to most of that front’s progressive wing. They refrain from a call to defeat MAGA in 2024, instead calling for a focus on building a new party as an alternative to both the Republicans and Democrats.

Many DSA members—perhaps a majority—disagree with this view. So while the organization as such sits out the 2024 presidential contest as it did in 2020, many of these members will be doing what they can to defeat MAGA, especially at the local and state levels, and trying to preserve relationships with those progressives and socialists who are throwing themselves into the anti-fascist fight. Hopefully, their efforts will succeed. But the stance of DSA’s national leadership is not just a missed opportunity for DSA, it is an obstacle to accomplishing those goals.

US-style fascism is on the march. Among most of the constituencies existentially threatened by MAGA there is a surge of new energy for taking on the electoral fight against it. Victory or defeat will still come down to close votes in six battleground states. And with a woman of African American and Asian descent heading the anti-MAGA ticket, we can expect that the racist and sexist tropes floated in the last week will only increase in both viciousness and quantity.

The mood shift produced by the Biden-to-Harris handoff will not by itself produce the changes we need. But the combative energy unleashed is an essential element in moving this country, and failure to connect to it, build it, and fight for influence over its political direction, is to miss the moment.

The gender myopia in this passage from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar stands out at a time when it is largely women’s energy that is driving US politics. But still, these lines capture the moment:

There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

Max Elbaum is a member of the Convergence Magazine editorial board and the author of Revolution in the Air: Sixties Radicals Turn to Lenin, Mao and Che (Verso Books, Third Edition, 2018), a history of the 1970s-‘80s ‘New Communist Movement’ in which he was an active participant. He is also a co-editor, with Linda Burnham and María Poblet, of Power Concedes Nothing: How Grassroots Organizing Wins Elections (OR Books, 2022).