The Philippines after the mid-term elections: Towards a showdown in 2028

[Editor’s note: Filipino socialist activist Merck Maguddayao, from the Partido Lakas ng Masa, will be speaking at Ecosocialism 2025, September 5-7, Naarm/Melbourne, Australia. For more information on the conference visit ecosocialism.org.au.]

The situation after the May 12 mid-term general elections in the Philippines can be summarised as follows: “All the forces of heaven and hell are in formation, ready for the battle to come.” 

Election winners

Twelve senators — half of Congress’ upper house — were up for election. Of those, four direct allies of former president Rodrigo Duterte were among the six most voted: his former presidential management staff head, Christopher “Bong” Go; former police chief Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa; TV host and lawyer Rodante “Dante” Marcoleta; and news anchor Erwin Tulfo.

After being roundly defeated in the 2022 elections, Liberal politicians reversed their fortunes this time around, with Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan rounding out the top six. They will join Risa Hontiveros in the senate, the lone Opposition senator during the Duterte administration. 

Of the remaining six senators elected, four are viewed as close to President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, while the other two are seen as potential allies of Duterte, including Bongbong’s sister Imee Marcos and Camille Villar. Imee openly sided with the Dutertes after Rodrigo’s arrest and incarceration at The Hague. During the election campaign, Imee and Villar were billed as guest candidates of Duterte’s party, Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (Philippine Democratic Party, PDP). 

How they will vote on the impeachment case against vice-president Sara Duterte, as well as their response to the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) case against Duterte and possible arrest of his allies, will become clear in the coming months. 

Party lists

The most voted party list in the House of Representatives was that of progressive centre-left party Akbayan, which secured three representatives: human rights lawyer Chel Diokno, current Akbayan MP Perci Cendaña, and Muslim woman leader Dahda Ismula. The Mamamayang Liberal party obtained one seat, electing Leila de Lima, who was persecuted and jailed for most of Duterte’s term in office.

According to the law, party-list representatives make up 20% of the 300-odd lower house MPs and had to traditionally come exclusively from marginalised sectors. However, local political dynasties have managed to hijack party lists ever since a 2013 Supreme Court ruling facilitated this. 

This meant that among the top party-list winners were: Tingog (from the Romualdez clan, who is a cousin of Marcos Jr), Agimat (the Revillas clan), ACT-CIS (the Tulfo clan) and PPP (the Duterte clan). The election of Duterte Youth party-list representatives to Congress has been suspended by the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) pending resolution of disqualification charges filed against them. 

Progressives and socialists

Left national democrats (NDs) associated with the Makabayan bloc won two seats via the ACT-Teacher and Kabataan party lists, respectively. Their other party lists, Gabriela and Bayan Muna, failed to get anyone elected. New left party list, Kamanggagawa, which is linked to the leftist organisation Alab Katipunan, will have one representative in the new Congress. 

There were several other left and progressive groups that registered impressive results, even though they failed to win any Senate seats. Partido Lakas ng Masa (Party of the Labouring Masses, PLM) senate candidate Luke Espiritu achieved the highest vote of any left force running for senate, with more than 6.4 million votes (more than 11% of total votes). This represented a doubling of his 2022 election vote. Another PLM senate candidate, Ka Leody de Guzman, won more than 4 million votes (7%).

Candidates from the Makabayan bloc, such as Teddy Casiño, Arlene Brosas, Danilo Ramos, Liza Masa and France Castro, also won millions of votes, while progressive liberal Heidi Mendoza garnered more than 8 million votes. 

Imminent battles

All political forces — from the extreme right-wing and dynastic forces of Duterte and Marcos, through to liberals, centre-left progressives, left NDs and the socialist left (represented by PLM) — are locked into an electoral showdown, with the 2028 presidential elections in sight. How these forces will fare in the coming political battles will be determined by events in the months ahead. 

We will have to see how they react to Sara Duterte’s impeachment case, Rodrigo Duterte’s trial, the threat to arrest more of Duterte’s minions, the growing movement being promoted by anti-fraud groups, the Church and former military generals questioning COMELEC over unexplained electoral anomalies, and other battles that are expected to erupt over economic crises and social injustices. 

The various groups in battle represent different and conflicting class forces. The task of the left is to shape this battle into a contest between the ruling classes and the masses of working class and marginalised sectors. This means campaigning for and forming a broad united front capable of opposing and eventually overthrowing the rule of the political dynasties encrusted at the top of all government structures. 

The 2028 presidential elections will undoubtedly be shaped by the battle between the two most powerful dynasties: the Marcoses and the Dutertes. Faced with this, the left must explain the crucial role of the mass movement in building a force capable of blocking their destructive ambitions and laying the foundations for a Gobyerno ng Masa (government of the masses).

Mobilising the mass movement

The main task of socialist forces is to begin expanding and strengthening their mass base across the country. Its small mass base and narrow political reach are major obstacles that need to be overcome. 

To build an electoral base, the left needs to find a way to reach the majority of the country’s 18 regions, 82 provinces and 254 electoral districts. But expanding electoral reach must also mean expanding and strengthening mass struggles in between, during and after election campaigns.

Socialist forces should not just prepare for elections. The issue is not simply winning seats in structures infested by dynasties and trapos [traditional politicians]. The left should aim to capture political power and build an alternative Gobyerno ng Masa at all levels of government.

Yet, the die is cast on the 2028 electoral battle. Political dynasties will remain the main issue, as the Marcos and Duterte clans face off in another showdown. They are not, however, the only actors at play; all political forces are gearing up for this battle. 

Build the Grand Alliance Against Dynasties

The battle cry should be to not only build an electoral movement or alliance, but for a Grand Alliance Against Political Dynasties. This battle cry can mark out the battle lines for the fight not in 2028 but the years to come. 

The Grand Alliance Against Dynasties should be defined by the following: 

• It should encompass various political forces from the broad spectrum of liberals, centre-left progressives, left NDs and socialists;

• It should not be a gathering of progressive group leaders but a formation representing mass organisations; 

• It should include progressive Church groups, the middle classes, patriotic soldiers and the entire Filipino people — workers, the poor, students, youth, women, farmers, fisherfolks, LGBTQIA+ community, environmental groups, and all those that make up the 99% of society.

• It should not be just for elections but be a centre for advancing mass struggles. 

Back to business for Marcos Jr

Only two weeks have passed since the election, but the Marcos Jr administration is back to business. 

The president called on his Cabinet members to resign as a gesture of moving on and addressing people’s concerns, which were reflected in the election results. But Marcos Jr has retained his presidential economic team, a sign he plans to further consolidate the government’s neoliberal policies and reaffirm support for those oligarchs and cronies aligned with him. 

Marcos Jr has retained his Department of Finance Secretary, Ralph Recto, who in 2005 engineered the infamous 12% consumption tax (known as the Expanded Value Added Tax, EVAT), and was responsible for the recent raid on PhilHealth’s savings to bolster Marcos Jr's Maharlika Fund.

Housing department secretary Jerry Acuzar, who came from a real estate development agency, has been replaced by real estate and construction mogul Ramon Aliling, ensuring the continued privatisation of housing projects. Acuzar admitted to the failure of the administration’s housing project (the 4PH Pabahay Program) prior to the election.

Newly appointed environment secretary Raphael Lotilla comes from being secretary of the Department of Energy, which was accused by various multi-sectoral groups of graft regarding violations of a coal moratorium and endorsing energy oligarch Aboitiz Corp.

Renewed battlegrounds

We have also seen a renewal of people’s struggles for their rights and existence. 

The recent resistance by the Tondo community — where hundreds of Barangay 262 and 264 residents battled with a police-backed demolition team, preventing them entering their community — showcased the back-to-the-struggle mood of the population. 

The left needs to be prepared to advance and lead such emerging local mass struggles. In this sense, preparations for the 2028 election should be viewed as secondary to advancing broad working-class struggles. 

However, in preparing for the 2028 preparation, the left must also contest the upcoming Barangay (local council) and Sangguniang Kabataan (SK or youth council) elections on December 1. 

Congress is discussing laws to delay the elections, but given the not-so-favourable showing for government candidates, Marcos Jr will likely ensure the elections goes ahead as scheduled. 

There is a ban on political dynasties participating in local SK elections. This provides the left with an opportunity to expand its local government base. PLM is calling on its capable community leaders, especially youth and student leaders, to intervene in these elections. 

PLM believes the left must continue to contest elections, nationally and locally, while expanding and strengthening its forces for the coming final showdown: the capture of political power and establishment of a Gobyerno ng Masa that can steer the course towards a socialist future for all. 

Sonny Melencio is the Chairperson of Partido Lakas ng Masa (PLM), which fielded Ka Leody de Guzman and Luke Espiritu as senate candidates in the May 12 elections.