Pyrrhic victory for South Korea’s liberals? The significance of Lee Jae-myung’s presidential election win

[Editor’s note: Youngsu Won, director of Pnyx — Korean Institute for Marxist Studies, will be speaking at Ecosocialism 2025, September 5-7, Naarm/Melbourne, Australia. For more information on the conference visit ecosocialism.org.au.]

Democratic Party (DP) candidate Lee Jae-myung defeated his main rival, Kim Moon-soo from the ruling conservative right People Power Party (PPP), in South Korea’s June 3 presidential vote. 

Lee’s victory marks the official end of the political crisis that erupted with former PPP president Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed December 3 self-coup. Pro-coup forces have finally lost power and the liberals are back in government as a result of the anti-coup people’s power candlelight revolution that swept the nation.

The DP, however, failed to win its expected absolute majority of votes or defeat Kim by more than 10%. The “New Right” candidate performed better than polls predicted, with the PPP reaping considerable support despite the damage suffered from Yoon’s coup attempt. 

The result leaves the new president and his government in a troublesome position. As this was a snap election, Lee was immediately sworn in on June 4 and will have to work with Yoon’s ministers, at least until a new cabinet is named.

From self-coup to impeachment

Despite mobilising troops, trying to occupy the National Assembly and seeking to arrest key political leaders, Yoon’s self-coup failed within hours after parliamentarians voted to annul his martial law decree. They did so as people mobilised all over the country, forcing soldiers involved in the plot back into their barracks. Parliament then voted on December 4 to impeach Yoon, who was subsequently arrested on January 15 on charges of leading a rebellion against the constitution. 

In response, reactionary forces fought back, led by Christian fundamentalists and extreme-right groups with the backing of the crisis-stricken PPP. This led to a delay in the Constitutional Court’s ruling on impeachment, and Yoon’s release from prison on March 8. Elated by these wins, extreme right forces stepped up their aggressive and violent anti-impeachment offensive, as the situation turned more tense and uncertain. 

But on March 4, the Constitutional Court ultimately voted to ratify Yoon’s impeachment, triggering a presidential election.

Anti-coup vs pro-coup election

The PPP was divided throughout the coup fiasco, with the pro-impeachment Han Dong-hoon leadership being overthrown by a pro-Yoon extremist faction. Under the control of the pro-Yoon faction, the PPP increasingly drifted towards forming a de facto alliance with the extra-parliamentary extreme right, characterised by anti-Communist, pro-US and Christian fundamentalist views.

Seen by many as the most viable candidate to defeat the PPP, Lee easily won the DP’s preselection race with 89.77% of votes. In contrast, the PPP’s preselection campaign was marked by dirty infighting between little-known politicians with few chances of defeating the DP. Kim’s preselection was largely a reflection of the PPP’s abrupt turn to the extreme right.

Kim was a former student leader who was also deeply involved in the trade union movement in the 1970s and ’80s. After the failure of the left-wing Popular Party, which he helped establish in the early ’90s, he began shifting right and joined the conservatives. 

After serving three terms as a local MP (1996-2006) and twice as Governor of Gyeonggi Province (2006-14), Kim continued shifting in a conservative direction to become a leader of the New Right. 

Yoon appointed Kim as Minister of Employment and Labour, the former labour leader transforming into the country’s most anti-labour minister. During the anti-impeachment campaign, Kim consistently sided with Yoon.

Though Kim won the primaries, he was not the candidate preferred by PPP leaders, who believed Kim had little chance. They instead backed Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who served as acting president after Yoon’s impeachment. 

Han claimed he had opposed Yoon’s coup, but covertly defended Yoon during the impeachment trial and maintained Yoon’s ultra-conservative regime while briefly in power. Despite the uneven election playfield and various technical irregularities, PPP members opted for Kim over Han.

Lee Joon-seok, a young conservative expelled from the PPP, also ran as a maverick candidate for the New Reform Party, managing to gain strong support from many young anti-feminist men. 

On the progressive side, Justice Party figurehead and veteran labour leader Kwon Young-gook stood for the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) coalition, which also included the Green Party and the Labor Party. The only other progressive candidate, Kim Jae-yeon from the Progressive Party (PP), stood down during the race to support Lee Jae-myung.

In the end, the four-way contest pitting three anti-coup parties against the only pro-coup party turned into a two-horse race, especially as the extreme right’s persistent protests and violent actions consolidated the now ultra-conservative PPP’s traditional support base. 

Election result

This was not enough, however, to save the PPP. Lee Jae-myung became South Korea’s 21st president and only the fourth DP president since the democratisation process began in 1987. Lee Jae-myung won 17,287,513 votes (49.42%) to Kim’s 14,395,639 votes (41.15%), the margin being smaller than expected (one major exit poll indicated the result would be 51.7% to 39.8%).

The vote was disappointing for Lee Jae-myung and the DP, who wanted an overwhelming victory. On the other hand, Kim’s support was much higher than expected, given his approval rate was below 10% earlier this year while Lee Jae-myung’s support was more than 40%. 

Though Kim lost, his trajectory from outsider to ruling party candidate is alarming in many ways. Paradoxically, his relatively strong showing has exposed the PPP’s vulnerabilities and the difficulties it faces in carrying out the reforms needed to survive as a viable ruling conservative party.

Positioning himself as an alternative candidate of reformed conservatism against the hopeless ultra-conservatism of the PPP, Lee Joon-seok won 2,917,523 votes (8.34%). He won support from many young men due to his strong anti-feminist views and sexist remarks during the campaign, which were both an asset while limiting his support among other sectors. 

As the only progressive candidate, Kwon won 344,150 votes, falling short of the 1% target (0.98%) and well below that obtained by previous progressive candidates in the past two decades.

A more detailed analysis of the votes is needed, but it appears that regionalism also was a strong factor. For example, in Yeongnam, a PPP stronghold in the south east, there was a strong showing for Kim, especially in the cities of Busan and Daegu where he won an absolute majority.

The left

Labour and social movements played a key role in the struggle against Yoon’s self-coup and for his impeachment. However, in the context of a snap election, their role was severely limited as the major institutional players quickly came to dominate the political scene, leaving little room for progressive politics. 

Radicalised young women, who played a very prominent role in the candlelight revolution — also known as the glow stick revolution due to young people swapping candles for glow sticks normally seen at K-Pop concerts — were largely marginalised in the campaign.

The PP — the largest political current on the left, which emerged after the Park Geun-hye government banned the Unified Progressive Party (UPP) in 2014 — opted to join the liberal bourgeois coalition backing Lee Jae-myung. 

They did the same in the April 2024 general election, when they joined the pro-DP coalition in return for securing some seats. Obtaining two party list seats and one constituency seat, the PP ensured it overcame the ongoing political and organisational impact of the UPP’s ban and expulsion of its five MPs from parliament.

The Justice Party, in contrast, went into crisis after defeat in the 2024 general election reduced it to an extra-parliamentary party. Subsequent internal disputes over the party’s direction only further demoralised its ranks. 

In this context, the JP reluctantly participated in a broad progressive pre-selection process, in which Kwon ultimately won over former Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) president Han Sang-gyun by 4565 votes to 1913. 

Han Sang-gyun is a well-known labour leader due to his militant role in the 76-day Ssangyong Motors strike in 2009. However, his team was poorly organised and failed to win any official support from the KCTU. 

Despite various difficulties, Kwon worked hard to raise progressive and labour issues as the only progressive candidate. However, his campaign and result was not enough to help the JP overcome the multiple crises it faces.

KCTU’s fiasco

The most bitter pill for progressive politics was the KCTU’s decision to not support any progressive candidate. While the DP’s long history of anti-labour policies made it hard for the KCTU to openly support Lee Jae-myung, leaders remained divided over who to support. 

KCTU president Yang Kyung-soo, from the pro-PP faction, was unable to impose support for the DP on KCTU-affiliated unions and members. Many KCTU leaders from other factions criticised Yang's indecision, urging him to instead support Kwon. 

Yang refused and ensured the KCTU’s National Executive Committee did not take a position. He later apologised for the KCTU’s failure to adopt a position on the election, but refused to step down.

The country’s two biggest industrial unions — the Korean Metal Workers’ Union (KMWU) and the Korean Public Service and Transport Workers’ Union (KPTU) — did support Kwon and protested the KCTU’s indecision. But several other industrial and individual unions backed Lee Jae-myung and the DP.

Founded in 1995, the KCTU played a key role in establishing the former Democratic Labour Party in 2000, but ultimately could not prevent the party from falling into internal strife and eventually splitting in 2008. This left the KCTU having to simultaneously support various divided progressive parties.

Fight the right, deepen democracy

In the course of Yoon’s impeachment, popular mobilisation enabled the DP to defend South Korea’s democracy. However, in the process up until Yoon’s eventual dismissal it was challenged by extreme-right forces. Clearly, the foundations of the democracy South Koreans have struggled for over so many years still need to be consolidated.

Labour and social movements have been key agents in this process of social and political democratisation. However, three decades of neoliberal counteroffensive has left democracy weakened, with hard-won rights constantly under attack from conservative governments. 

The capacity of the Lee Jae-myung government to bring about democratic reform is yet to be seen. But considering the historic record of DP governments, not much can be expected. Though Lee Jae-myung is considered a progressive reformist, he will have to confront enormous challenges, as well as overwhelming internal and external pressures.

People’s power, together with labour and social movements, will have to pressure the DP government to respect the people’s will and implement its promised grand reform project for South Korean society. At the same time, there is no doubt that extreme-right forces will seek to further gather strength to push their reactionary agenda. 

As with elsewhere in the world, the struggle against this fascist and extreme right-wing offensive will have to be tied to the fight to deepen democracy, in the process paving the way to build alternatives beyond capitalism.

Youngsu Won is director of Pnyx — Korean Institute for Marxist Studies.