— Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal reposted from The Nation — In a video clip,
a young boy stands at a makeshift barricade across a road. He holds a
toy gun to the head of his friend. Off camera, an adult asks, “What are
you going to do?” “We’ll kill him and leave him naked,” replies the boy.
The adults laugh. This scene from Nicaragua, filmed at one of the
hundreds of towns paralyzed by street protests, epitomizes the violence
that has taken hold since April 18. Before that date, local media
proudly quoted figures
showing that Nicaragua had become the safest country in Central
America. But the two months since then have seen more than 170 violent
deaths, thousands injured, and scores of public buildings burned down or
ransacked.
How did it begin? Nicaragua has a backstory of violence: the
revolutionary struggles of the 1970s against the repressive Somoza
dictatorship, followed by the US-financed Contra war against the
revolutionary Sandinista government in the 1980s (the US role in that
war was condemned by the World Court in 1986 as a violation of
international law). Electoral defeat for the Sandinistas in 1990 brought
peace, but at the expense of 16 years of corrupt, neoliberal government
that undid many of the gains of the revolution. Daniel Ortega’s
election win in 2006 led to a decade of renewed social investment.
Poverty fell by almost half between 2005 and 2016, according to World Bank data,
from 48 percent to 25 percent. Nicaragua won praise for its low crime
rate, limited drug-related violence, and community-based policing. Nor
could the private sector complain: Nicaragua’s per-capita GDP increased by 38 percent—more than for any of its neighbors.
Government opponents favor a different version of the
story: Ortega took total control of the Sandinista party (the FSLN),
bent the rules to stand for reelection, won the Catholic Church’s
support with stringent anti-abortion laws, and relied for many of his
anti-poverty programs on money from Venezuela. A breakaway group of
Sandinistas who had earlier formed a new party, the Sandinista
Renovation Movement (MRS), began to label Ortega as a new dictator and
accuse him of repression. But they never achieved much political
traction, moved rightward to form alliances with longer-standing
opposition parties, and yet still won only handfuls of votes in national
and local elections.
In April, however, the government suddenly seemed to lose the
support of many younger people, especially students. First there was
popular resentment against what was seen as its slow response to a large
fire in one of Nicaragua’s tropical forests (although, as Californians
know, even well-resourced governments struggle to stop wildfires). Then
the government announced a change in social-security rules. Struggling
to meet rising pension costs, it refused demands by employers that their
contributions be cut, and instead proposed to raise them, to make a
smaller increase in employee contributions, and to cut pensions by 5
percent (but offset by stronger health-care entitlements).
This had three extraordinary consequences. First, rather than older
people, it was students who led the most virulent protests against the
changes. Second, in an unprecedented response, on April 19 the police
used live ammunition to control the disturbances, in which at least
three were killed, including a police officer, and dozens injured.
Third, this event proved to be a catalyst for nationwide protests, in
which the social-security reforms were soon forgotten (having been
quickly withdrawn by the government). The call was now for “the
dictator” to resign. Barricades sprang up in several major cities and
many towns, not least Masaya, whose traditional heart, Monimbó,
historically a Sandinista stronghold, produced the strongest
anti-government sentiment. By April 24, the death toll had reached at
least 25, including a journalist and a second police officer.
It was the student deaths that set the consensus narrative
sustained in local and international media over subsequent weeks: that
the government is repressing “peaceful protests” or even (from Amnesty International)
that Nicaraguan authorities had “turned on their own people.” A
corollary to this is that all violence is the government’s fault,
whether carried out openly or via clandestine groups. The international
press faithfully adopted this interpretation of events, even when The New York Times and The Guardian sent reporters to Monimbó itself (the Times
quoted a baker in Masaya as saying “Daniel is over. His term ends
here,” without mentioning that the man was a beneficiary of government
assistance to small businesses). The reality is that the nature of the
violence changed rapidly, and objective observers find it difficult to
interpret events with the certainty that most of the media display.
How did this change happen? There were two phases. In the first,
barricades that had been removed were re-erected, again blocking
streets, with Masaya again the most affected. The “peaceful” protesters
armed themselves with homemade mortars, repelling attempts by the police
or Sandinista supporters to regain control. Rival marches took place,
in many cases without problems, but friends of mine took part in a
“peace” march that was greeted by hails of stones and mortar fire. A
wave of destruction began, focusing first on Sandinista offices, then
moving on to public buildings, including town halls and in some cases
schools and health centers. Houses of some Sandinista supporters in
Masaya were ransacked or burned down. According to neighbors who
witnessed it, alongside genuine protesters were unemployed youths paid
$10–15 per night, some brought in by lorry, defending the barricades,
attacking the police, and ransacking shops.
The second phase of protests began in the second half of May. First, a
“national dialogue” to resolve the crisis opened on May 16, fronted by
the Catholic Church and attended by Ortega. One of the student
representatives, Lesther Alemán, said it was not a dialogue but a negotiation about the president’s departure.
Talks broke down five days later, when the government insisted that the
opposition remove the barricades; instead, they were strengthened. Then
on May 30, Mother’s Day in Nicaragua, two big demonstrations held in
the capital attracted more violence. A bus carrying Sandinista
supporters was fired at, causing one death and 27 injuries; and snipers
attacked opposition supporters leaving their demonstration, killing
seven and injuring over 90, including 20 police. Blame for the second
attack was inevitably placed on the police.
Protests immediately escalated to the point where the country was
paralyzed by barricades. Some towns and cities—the biggest again being
Masaya—became no-go areas for the police or government officials, with
several either being killed or kidnapped and tortured. By mid-June the
death toll had reached over 170, including nine police officers.
How do we interpret these events? What I’ve called “the consensus
narrative” is certainly the way they are seen by perhaps a third of the
population, including former Sandinistas. There is an opposite view:
that government repression is a fiction, and that right from the
beginning the violence was orchestrated by the government’s
long-standing opponents to create the conditions for a soft coup.
As we have seen, the mainstream media have unfailingly accepted the
first interpretation, either giving no credibility to the second or
omitting mention of it.
It seems clear that repression of the initial student
demonstration was a grave error of judgment by the police. But there is
growing evidence that subsequent events were manipulated so as to
magnify discontent. For example, according to a reliable eyewitness,
before the ransacking of a supermarket in Managua those doing it were
seen to be given Sandinista T-shirts to wear. Burning of buildings is
routinely ascribed to Sandinistas, even when it is party officials’
houses that are destroyed, or in city streets under the opposition’s
control. Police in Managua apprehended a known criminal nicknamed “The
Viper” who confessed to plotting with the protesters to carry out armed
attacks on shops and FSLN offices. Even the evidence against the police
for the shooting at the opposition march on Mother’s Day has been called
into question, in an open letter to Amnesty International by a former prisoner of conscience.
The fact that gunmen are working with the opposition was confirmed by
the attempted assassination of Leonel Morales, a student leader who
strongly criticized the protesters. On June 12 he was kidnapped, shot,
and left for dead in a ditch, an incident at first ignored by the
right-wing media, then ascribed to robbery.
The opposition is united in wanting an end to Ortega’s presidency. It
has fed on popular complaints, including within the Sandinista base,
that Ortega has stifled debate within the party and instead of
encouraging a new generation of leaders has centralized power in himself
and his wife. But the opposition is also divided on timing, tactics,
and broader political aims. Some government opponents have openly
accepted US funding. For example, between 2014 and 2017, the National
Endowment for Democracy awarded 54 grants totaling $4.1 million to
opposition-linked NGOs. A May article on NED funding in the online journal Global Americans,
“Laying the groundwork for change,” said that “it is now quite evident
that the U.S. government actively helped build the political space and
capacity in Nicaraguan society for the social uprising that is currently
unfolding.” Part of the opposition, the MRS, has long-established
relations with Republican right-wingers in the United States; it and
other organizations had earlier traveled to Washington to call for US
economic sanctions against Nicaragua. A broader opposition delegation
was in Washington this month to lobby the US government and the
Organization of American States. It was funded by Freedom House and
welcomed by Republicans such as Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Ileana
Ros-Lehtinen.
Other government opponents declare themselves to be genuine
leftists who want to restore Nicaragua’s revolutionary trajectory. For
example, a left-wing student opposition leader, Harley Morales, used a lengthy interview
to criticize his colleagues who traveled to Washington for their
“terrible” decision to take part in meetings that “gave them a bad
name.”
Morales signaled a more sinister opposition weakness, that they had
“lost touch” with those on the barricades. Though described as a key
element of peaceful protest, the barricades have become a way of
enforcing the opposition agenda, often violently. The homemade mortars
are lethal enough, but more sophisticated weapons have been introduced,
leading to worries that not just local delinquents but organized-crime
syndicates may be involved. Nicaragua has so far resisted the incursion
of drug-related violence that plagues neighboring Honduras and El
Salvador, but there are genuine concerns that the drug gangs, commonly known as the “maras,” are ready to fill any political vacuum.
What happens next? While writing this, three new developments
occurred that seem to signpost the options that Nicaragua faces. The
most recent is that police entered Masaya in force, regaining access to
the besieged police station and removing the barricades sealing the city
off from the capital. There were up to six deaths (the number is still
unconfirmed) and many arrests as the police removed numerous barricades
and those who were defending them with various types of weapons. Similar
actions brought down barricades in Managua and Estelí. The New York Times
labeled the police’s entry into Masaya “a campaign of terror,” but
parts of the city returned to normal daily life as a result. Monimbó is
proving more resistant, and church leaders have sought a truce between
police and opposition fighters.
The second development is that, after a delay caused by the
Mother’s Day shootings, the national dialogue restarted, made limited
progress, but then halted again awaiting the involvement of
international bodies whose presence the opposition demands. So far, the
opposition side still refuses to talk about anything other than the
government-led violence, but its divisions will become more pronounced
when the dialogue resumes and they are forced to engage in finding
solutions.
The most shocking of the recent events appeared to be timed to
coincide with and discredit the dialogue. On June 16, a family house in
Managua was set on fire by hooded thugs, killing most of the occupants,
including two children. The government was quickly blamed, because
allegedly the fire was in reprisal for the owner’s refusal to allow
snipers to operate from his roof. Government denials seemed plausible,
as the barrio concerned has numerous barricades controlled by the
opposition. On the other hand, a surviving family member backs up the
opposition version. The truth is difficult to ascertain, and if proof
emerges, it is unlikely to dispel the media verdicts about who the real
culprits were.
So Nicaragua faces a choice. One path is simply to do what
governments often do: put up with protest for a while, but intervene if
it ceases to be “peaceful” and restore order by force. Many other
countries faced with a similar choice might have acted even sooner. A
second path is a negotiated peace, in which differences are
painstakingly reconciled, with a settlement bringing political reforms
as well a return to public order. Of course, these paths could be
combined. A third, however, is far more dangerous: a turn toward mob
rule that could easily run out of control, so that Nicaragua becomes
open to a truly authoritarian government and life becomes far less
secure than it was before April 18. Most Nicaraguans have only limited
knowledge of the violence and insecurity experienced in El Salvador and
Honduras, their immediate neighbors to the north. They may soon find how
easily this could cross the border.
