The anatomy of Indonesia’s uprising

First published at Asian Labor Review.

Since late August 2025, Indonesia has been gripped by a wave of spontaneous and violent protests that shook the foundations of the new Prabowo-Gibran administration. What began as online discontent spiralled into street battles, leaving cities scarred and the nation’s political future uncertain. This crisis was the culmination of deep-seated economic pain, elite arrogance, and a bitter power struggle playing out behind the scenes. Our in-depth analysis of this volatile period reveals the complex factors behind the public’s fury and outlines a potential path forward for the people’s movement.

Unfolding economic crisis

The recent surge in public anger isn’t a sudden phenomenon, but rather the culmination of 60 years of flawed economic policies and mismanagement. This decline began under the authoritarian “New Order” regime of Suharto (1968-1998) and was further deepened during the two terms of Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi (2014-2024). These periods were marked by a neoliberal economic model reliant on cheap labour and the exploitation of natural resources, a model of “military-capitalism” that has prevented the development of a strong national industry.

Under the new administration of President Prabowo Subianto, who took office in October 2024, the financial situation has been in a critical condition. The government’s coffers are depleted, partly due to the previous administration’s lavish spending on the new capital city, Nusantara (IKN), which had consumed IDR 89 trillion (approximately US$5.74 billion) by the end of 2024.

This financial strain is compounded by a series of enormous new expenditures draining the state’s resources. The current government is committed to its flagship Free Nutritious Meal programme, a campaign promise with an estimated annual cost of IDR 420 trillion. Simultaneously, the nation faces a staggering IDR 800.33 trillion (approximately US$51.63 billion) in debt due for repayment in 2025.

The cost of governance has also increased, as the large coalition cabinet is expected to drain an additional IDR 777 billion (approximately US$50.13 million) per year from the state budget. On top of these commitments, military spending has surged to IDR 245.2 trillion (approximately US$15.82 billion) for 2025, a figure that includes the recent purchase of 48 fighter jets from Turkey for IDR 160 trillion (approximately US$10.32 billion).

This spending has blown a hole in the 2025 state budget, leading to a projected deficit of IDR 662 trillion (approximately US$42.71 billion). To cope, the central government has slashed transfer funds to regional governments by 50 per cent for 2025. In response, at least 104 local governments raised property taxes, with some increasing them by over 100 per cent, and the city of Cirebon, West Java, imposed a shocking 1,000 per cent hike.

The impact on ordinary Indonesians has been severe, a clear result of ‘profligate spending from above’ and ‘austerity from below’. In the first half of 2025 alone, 42,385 workers were laid off, a 32 per cent increase from the previous year. The World Bank reports a stark increase in poverty, with the poverty line rising from 15.6 per cent to 19.9 per cent in a few months, pushing over 12 million more Indonesians into poverty.

Arrogance of power

This economic pain was the fuel, but the arrogance of public officials was the spark. Public frustration had already been simmering due to a series of government actions and the dismissive way officials responded to criticism, including online campaigns such as #PeringatanDarurat (Emergency Warning) and #IndonesiaGelap (Indonesia Dark).

The breaking point came with the property tax hikes. In Pati, Central Java, citizens planned a protest against a 250 per cent tax increase. The Regent (a local government head), Sudewo, responded with defiance, a challenge which only galvanised public support and led to a surge in donations for the protest. Tens of thousands demanded his resignation, a demand that persisted even after he cancelled the tax hike. The movement quickly spread, with protests erupting in Bone, South Sulawesi, against a 300 per cent tax increase, leading to clashes and 62 arrests.

Public anger reached a fever pitch when members of the House of Representatives (DPR) were seen dancing during an annual session, shortly after approving budget increases for their own housing allowances. When citizens protested with the demand “Disband the DPR!”, Ahmad Sahroni, a parliament member from the National Democracy (Nasdem) Party, labelled the protesters “the stupidest people in the world”. This insult, echoed by other celebrity politicians like Eko Patrio, Uya Kuya and Nafa Urbach, was seen as the ultimate display of contempt and directly triggered the nationwide protests.

Elite power struggle

The first major protest, calling for the dissolution of the DPR on August 25, materialised under strange circumstances. The call to action went viral primarily on TikTok, a platform not typically used for major political mobilisation in Indonesia, while being less widespread on platforms like Twitter, where political issues are more common. Notably, established student and labour groups weren’t involved in its planning.

More suspiciously, researchers of social media found that the accounts that first spread the call to protest were known “buzzers” — paid online influencers — who had previously supported the Prabowo government. This has led to strong suspicions that the protest was initially engineered by a faction of the political elite. A widely rumoured rift exists between President Prabowo and the camp of his predecessor, Jokowi, whose son Gibran is Vice President. This friction is evident in Prabowo’s inaction on issues like Jokowi’s fake diploma and the deployment of the military (TNI) to back the Attorney General’s Office in a confrontation with the Police, an institution seen as loyal to Jokowi.

The speculation is that one faction — likely Prabowo’s — orchestrated the initial protest to direct public anger towards the DPR and the National Police, thereby consolidating Prabowo’s own power. Whatever the case, the initial “engineered” protest, however, was quickly overshadowed by genuine, spontaneous public rage. On August 25, a crowd of hundreds swelled to thousands by the evening, consisting largely of the urban poor, online ride-hailing drivers (ojol), and high school students, with many joining after watching live streams of the events.

A death ignites the nation

The situation exploded on August 28. In a tragic and pivotal moment during clashes near the DPR building, a vehicle from the Police Mobile Brigade Corps (Brimob), a special operations unit, ran over several protesters, killing an online ride-hailing driver named Affan Kurniawan.

Affan’s death became a rallying cry. That same night, enraged drivers and residents laid siege to the Brimob headquarters in Central Jakarta. The next day, August 29, protests spread to over 30 cities. In Jakarta, police stations and posts were attacked and burned. Similar riots and clashes were reported in major cities like Makassar (South Sulawesi), Medan (North Sumatra), and Surabaya (East Java).

A significant development was the deployment of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI). While the Police were targets of public fury, soldiers were often welcomed by protesters, with some even seen distributing water and money, fuelling speculation about the deepening rivalry between the Police and the military.

By the end of August, the week-long unrest across more than 40 cities had resulted in 9 deaths, over 20 people missing, and 3,195 arrests.

Uncertain futures

President Prabowo has seemingly weathered the storm, consolidating support from religious organisations and political parties while his opponents in parliament lose legitimacy. He has characterised protestors as “traitors” and “terrorists,” initiating a harsh crackdown and scapegoating activists.

However, the underlying economic and social problems persist, making future outbursts of public anger likely. The most significant danger is that if these movements remain leaderless, a future crisis could serve as a pretext for Prabowo to declare martial law and establish a military dictatorship, returning Indonesia to a dark era.

The existing leftist, popular, and civil society movements were caught off guard by the speed of the escalation. Due to years of repression and internal divisions, they were unable to provide leadership. Without a credible alternative leadership, this raw anger could be channelled by reactionary forces.

Given this reality, we propose a clear strategy for what must be done by the working-class movements. First, build a united front by establishing a centre for political consolidation. This space should bring together leftist groups, popular movements, and civil society organisations around a shared minimum programme, creating the foundation for coordinated action. Second, prioritise grassroots organising. Move beyond social media and establish territorial resistance committees in neighbourhoods, workplaces, and factories. These local structures will serve as the backbone of a durable and mobilised popular movement.

Third, combat disinformation with a media campaign that is swift, factual, and easy to understand. This effort must counter the elite’s false narratives and empower the public with clarity and truth. Fourth, channel public anger strategically. Avoid slogans like “Disband the DPR!” without proper context, as such calls have historically led to military intervention. Instead, expose the systemic corruption of the political system and promote organising slogans that build strength and unity — such as “Organise, Unite, and Fight for a Just Republic!”

The only way to avert this grim prospect is through patient, humble, and strategic organising to build a unified and powerful people’s movement capable of presenting a genuine alternative.

This article was first published in Koran Pembebasan (Liberation Newspaper) in Indonesian on September 4 2025, under the title Organisasikan serta Muarakan Kemarahan Rakyat melalui Kepemimpinan Politik Alternatif! (“Organise and Channel the People’s Anger through Alternative Political Leadership!”) by the National Collective of the People’s Liberation Party (PPR), Indonesia. The English version has been edited for length and clarity.