Cyril Ramaphosa relaunches neo-liberalism: After Jacob Zuma’s firing, South Africa risks budget austerity
By Patrick BondFebruary 28, 2018 — Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal — Cyril Ramaphosa’s
soft-coup firing of Jacob Zuma from the South African presidency
on February 14, after nearly nine years in power and a
humiliating struggle to avoid resigning, has contradictory local
and geopolitical implications. Society’s general applause at
seeing Zuma’s rear end resonates loudly, but concerns
immediately arise about the new president’s neo-liberal,
pro-corporate tendencies, and indeed his legacy of financial
corruption and class war against workers. There is still a lack
of closure on the 2012 Marikana Massacre, in spite of his
February 20 speech to parliament pledging atonement. New
legislation Ramaphosa supports will limit the right to strike,
while the new budget has cuts and tax increases that hurt the poorest.
Internationally, the
emergence of the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
alliance in 2010 (when Beijing invited Pretoria on board) was
Zuma’s main legacy, he believed: BRICS offered enormous
potential to challenge abusive Western hegemony. The reality,
however, has been disappointing, especially in the most unequal
and troubled of the five countries, South Africa, where
Moscow-trained leadership expertly talked left… but walked
right. After Zuma, more
extreme fiscal austerity and a return to mining-centric
accumulation under Ramaphosa will amplify the misery locally –
while likely leaving South Africa’s commitment to the BRICS
project in the doldrums. The first evidence of this came on
February 21 when Ramaphosa’s inherited finance minister, the
corruption-tainted Malusi Gigaba, imposed austerity and
liberalized exchange controls.
The end of Zuptanomics
Zuma’s fall was due to a balance tipping in recent weeks between, on the one hand, patronage-based support within his African National Congress (ANC) leadership, mainly as a result of large-scale corruption paid for by a fast-rising public debt (from 28 to 55 percent of GDP since 2009). On the other, the resulting threat to ANC electoral prospects in 2019 came from the often farcical way Zuma fused dubious personal ethics, an ethnic traditionalism founded on patriarchy, and capital accumulation via criminal syndicates. Two months ago, the ANC’s leadership narrowly voted in Ramaphosa (against Nkozasana Dlamini-Zuma, who had last served as African Union commissioner and was considered loyal to her ex-husband) with the hope he can restore the party’s prestige, won in the ANC’s 1912-1994 era as a liberation movement and then during the 1994-99 presidency of Nelson Mandela. Yet Ramaphosa is himself also guilty of sustained corporate tax-dodging during his leadership of Lonmin’s platinum mines and the continent’s largest cellphone company (MTN). Also contributing to his riches were his controversial Shanduka coal mining house and the local McDonald’s and Coca Cola franchises – all of which were divested by 2016 when his estimated wealth of $550 million was placed in a blind trust. Now Ramaphosa has little more than a 15 month window in which to erase the electorate’s visceral memory of the so-called ‘Zupta’ circuits that – along with Ramaphosa-aligned ‘White Monopoly Capital’ – so malevolently influenced the South African state over at least the past decade. The Zupta nickname fuses Zuma’s family and cronies, operating under the direction of three often vulgar-rich brothers, the Gutpas, who are Indian immigrants. The latter ‘state capture’ strategy began in the early 2000s but only came to the citizenry’s attention during a luxurious Gupta family wedding in 2013 which notoriously violated immigration and airport security regulations for Indian guests. Moreover, to pay the $2.5 million bill, the Guptas and their allies – apparently including the new ANC secretary general, Ace Magashule – raided an agricultural support fund meant for black farmers in the Free State province, whose official leader is still Magashule. In ANC balloting last December, Magashule barely beat Ramaphosa’s running mate for the top organisational job. But his fate rests on the extent of prosecution of the Guptas and whether testimony emerges as to his involvement in raiding provincial coffers on their behalf. If the Guptas avoid arrest in South Africa and hence do not offer damning testimony about Magashule, he may retain the job for months or even years to come, the way Zuma did in spite of widespread concern about his probity.$1.25 billion per year was lost to Zupta looting, reckons former finance minister Pravin Gordhan, particularly via the big energy and transport parastatals. To be sure, however, that is a small fraction of the $22 billion lost annually to overcharging on state procurement contracts by what is the world’s most corrupt business elite, as ranked by PricewaterhouseCoopers. In the Johannesburg, Cape Town, Stellenbosch and Durban circuits of White Monopoly Capital, PwC reports that “eight out of ten senior managers commit economic crime,” especially procurement fraud, money-laundering, asset misappropriation and bribery.Upon winning the ANC leadership last December, when Ramaphosa defeated former African Union chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (an ex-wife of Jacob), the new leader graciously thanked his predecessor. Only two legacies were mentioned: promoting the 2012 National Development Plan (NDP), and providing four million South Africans with free AIDS medicines. The latter accomplishment did indeed raise life expectancy by 12 years from the early 2000s trough of 52. But the Treatment Action Campaign’s world-historic battle against Big Pharmacorp profiteering and former president Thabo Mbeki’s AIDS denialism had already been won largely without Zuma’s visible assistance back in 2004, long before he assumed the presidency in 2009. Ramaphosa himself will proudly enforce the NDP in coming years, as he was its co-author. Lacking climate-change consciousness, the plan’s top priority infrastructure commitment is a $75 billion rail line, mainly to export 18 billion tons of coal, entailing 50 major projects of which 14 have already begun. The rail agency, Transnet, has a $5 billion credit from China to finance Chinese-made locomotives that are sufficiently strong to carry 3 kilometre-long coal trains, though Zupta corruption is already a major problem with the acquisitions. Indeed a wicked combination of patronage politics and neo-liberalism is likely to continue, given that on February 26, Ramaphosa announced a new cabinet that includes the return of two former finance ministers celebrated by the financial markets – Nhlanhla Nene and Pravin Gordhan – and a deputy president, David Mabuza, who ran the eastern Mpumalanga province since 2009. Mabuza’s predecessor in that job, Mathews Phosa – also a former ANC national treasurer – was scathing about his reputation as a corrupt thug: “He's engulfed in this cloud of scandals and let me tell you it's going to follow him where he is today… People fear him. They talk about the killings in the province, when they talk about them, they link them with him... I don't think the ANC will win the 2019 elections.”The leader of the new SA Federation of Trade Unions (second largest after the ANC-supporting Congress of SA Trade Unions), Zwelinzima Vavi, was just as critical of the new ministers: “Ramaphosa’s appointment has changed nothing. He has reshuffled names but remains rooted in the corrupt and pro-business ANC led by his predecessor. In particular it is incredible that he has appointed a deputy president, and therefore potential president, who has for years been implicated in of some of the most serious crimes when Premier of Mpumalanga. These crimes included alleged bribery in the awarding of contracts for World Cup facilities, threatening and spying on journalists and drawing up a hit-list of political opponents, of whom at least 15 were assassinated while no-one was arrested for any of these murders.”However on the positive side, Ramaphosa fired Zuma’s closest cabinet ally – energy minister David Mahlobo – and as a result, Pretoria’s attempted $100 billion purchase of eight nuclear energy reactors from Rosatom is now highly unlikely. This is largely due to Pretoria’s worsening debt crisis, so that really leaves just one accomplishment as Zuma’s legacy: annual networking with leaders in Beijing, Brasilia, Delhi and Moscow.BRICS reforms?
Conventional wisdom, as expressed by foreign policy scholar Oscar van Heerden late last year, is that Zuma “ensured our ascendency into the BRICS Geo-Strategic grouping, made up of Brazil, Russia, India and China: the emerging economies in the world. This is important because in the pursuit of a more equitable and fairer world order, this grouping provides a counterweight to the dominant Western powers. BRICS provides access to better trade relations as well as better global security arrangements.” Zuma has also articulated this pride, in part through his avatar, the politician-businessman Gayton McKenzie who authored a Fire and Fury-type tell-all, Kill Zuma by Any Means Necessary.But both conventional wisdom and Zuma apologists need a reality check: in spite of repeated rhetorical gestures from Pretoria to the contrary, the BRICS have amplified unfair and inequitable world order processes. While three of the BRICS played host to the corruption-riddled FIFA World Cup from 2010-18 – which is the most glaringly obvious, albeit superficial case of sub-imperial assimilation into (Sepp Blatter’s football) imperialism – just as revealing is the BRICS ‘ pursuit of global governance ‘reforms’:- In world finance, the International Monetary Fund’s 2010-15 board restructuring left four of the BRICS much more powerful (China by 37%, Brazil 23%, India 11% and Russia 8%) but most African countries now have a far lower voting share (e.g. Nigeria’s fell by 41% and even South Africa lost 21%). Does a higher BRIC voting share – not quite the 15% required for a veto – make any difference? After all, the bloc’s directors thrice (in 2011, 2015 and 2016) agreed with Western counterparts to endorse IMF leadership by Christine Lagarde, even though she was prosecuted – and in 2016 declared guilty of negligence – in a $490 million criminal corruption case dating to her years as French finance minister. Lagarde’s free ride suggests that the BRICS not only her neo-liberalism but the appearance of systemic political bribery at the top of the world financial order. Moreover, the BRICS’ $100 billion Contingent Reserve Arrangement – a notional bailout fund – strengthens the IMF by compelling borrowers to first get an IMF loan and structural adjustment programme, before accessing the other 70% of their quota contributions during times of financial emergencies. And leaders of the BRICS New Development Bank – which has no civil society oversight – brag of co-financing and staff sharing arrangements with the World Bank.
- As for global warming, the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement left victims without any ‘climate debt’ options against the West and BRICS, since legal claims for signatories’ liability are prohibited. The Paris emissions cuts commitments are too small and in any case non-binding – as witnessed when Donald Trump exited last June with no official punishment. Military, maritime and air transport emissions are not covered. Carbon markets – the ‘privatisation of the air’ – are endorsed. Thus climate catastrophe is inevitable, mainly to the benefit of high-carbon industries in the rich and middle-income countries.
- Regarding global trade, the 2015 Nairobi World Trade Organisation (WTO) summit essentially ended agricultural subsidies and hence food sovereignty thanks to crucial alliances made with by Brasilia and New Delhi representatives with Washington and Brussels negotiators. The pro-corporate WTO leader is Brazilian, suggesting that the simple replacement of Northern elites with Southern elites will continue to hurt the Global South.
Commodity price volatility, 2002-2018