Notes for reading the Cuban reality

Published in Spanish at Segunda Cita. Translation by Jackson Remple for LINKS International Journal of Socialist Renewal.

I believe that it is important to emphasise that, to understand Cuba objectively, it is necessary to set aside personal passions and prejudices, as well as simplistic interpretations that are almost always driven by a more or less conscious intention to promote political propaganda in favour of one’s own preconceived ideas or that express different ideological perspectives. This does not mean giving up hope of promoting the kind of society that one believes to be the best future scenario for the country.

Cuban society is suffering from an economic and social crisis whose most severe phase began in 2020. The country had previously experienced a difficult period in the 1990s. This was followed by a limited recovery during the first two decades of the 21st century. The crisis of the 1990s was produced by the combination of three fundamental factors: the collapse of the socialist bloc, the tightening of the US economic blockade, and the exhaustion of Cuba’s centralised and inefficient economic model whose obsolescence has continued to deepen over time.

Some reforms and sound economic policy measures were implemented during the second half of the 1990s. Along with a favourable shift in the international context, these made it possible for Cuba to emerge from the crisis and experience several years under better conditions. However, all of the causes that had produced the crisis remained latent. Why? Because the partial reforms did not alter the fundamental nature of the centrally planned, low-efficiency economic model. 

The model’s flaws led to another major crisis that began in 2020. That crisis was also precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic that struck the island. This new crisis has deepened year after year, from 2020 to 2026. Cuba’s Gross Domestic Product is now about 15 percentage points below what it was in 2019. High rates of inflation, a social crisis, and increased inequality have accompanied the economic crisis.

Since Donald Trump’s first administration, continuing through the mediocre Joe Biden administration and, above all, during Trump’s second term, US policy toward Cuba has been one of maximum pressure, reaching extremes such as Trump’s current blockade of oil shipments and his constant threats of military intervention. The goal of US policy has not changed. It aims to do everything possible to turn the current economic and social crisis in Cuba into a political crisis that undermines the stability of the Cuban government and the prevailing system on the island, in order to replace it with an executive power that is subservient to the policy of US domination of the Western Hemisphere, now reinvigorated under the so-called Donroe Doctrine.

Regardless of one’s various positions, sympathies or antipathies towards Cuba, its government and its system, if one wishes to be objective and not fall prey to the propaganda that often emerges from both sides, it is necessary to understand that the causes of the current crisis are manifold. They range from the extremely severe and criminal US blockade, in all its forms; the effects of the current international situation; and also, and no less importantly, the mistakes that have been made in the management of Cuba’s economy and the delay in implementing economic reform, the need for which has been evident for more than three decades now.

The current situation is multi-dimensional: it is not only an economic crisis, it is also a social and demographic crisis that features an aging population and a decline in skill levels, compared to earlier periods of strong growth in professional qualifications across a large segment of society. Space limitations do not allow me to provide a more detailed explanation of these different elements of the crisis.

I will conclude with a key point. The national crisis that Cuba is experiencing can only be resolved by implementing a comprehensive and far-reaching program of economic reforms that restores the country’s efficiency and productive capacity. This means transforming many aspects of the current system while we move toward a model in which markets play a much more active role, subject to the necessary regulations of a state that must guarantee social justice and the country’s sovereignty, while also promoting a new strategy for economic and democratic development. 

The lifting of the blockade and a change in US policy could play an essential role in the process. However, that is beyond Cuba’s control. Solutions must be devised and implemented on an urgent basis despite this increased pressure, although the first priority is defending Cuba’s sovereignty.

Julio Carranza is a Cuban economist and a Tenured Professor at the University of Havana. Among his many professional activities he has served as Director of the Ecuador office of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in Quito and as its regional representative for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela.