Boris Kagarlitsky

By Boris Kagarlitsky

June 4, 2022 — Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal reposted from Russian Dissent — With the US Senate’s approval of the latest “lend-lease” law, and with Ukraine set to receive a bonus offering of modern Western weapons and financial assistance, the question of who will win the war can now be considered resolved. The current Russian government not only lacks the material resources, but also the human resources necessary for a protracted conflict. It has no goal or ideology for which it would be possible to convince its citizens to fight. Mass mobilization is impossible because it would inevitably cause mass protests, and in any case neither the economy nor the military infrastructure is prepared to maintain the existence of a massive army. Aggressive propaganda, whether in the form of appeals to common inhumanity or threats against the whole world, might poison the consciousness of the older generation, but does not work as a motivation for people who will have to be compelled to fight or work for the war effort. On the contrary, discontent and even resistance is growing (as evidenced by the repeated arsons of military registration and enlistment offices). The defense industry, which has been in decline for decades, is unable to make up for the loss of equipment, and sanctions have further hobbled the production of the most important components, without which modern weapons manufacturing is impossible. Of course, occasionally the industry finds ways to circumvent sanctions, but production remains extremely expensive, and most importantly, suffers from supply instability.

[English at http://links.org.au/node/4008.]

이후로는 외국의 진보적 매체의 글들을 정기적으로 번역하여 게재할 예정이다. 이번에는 최근 Links International Journal of Socialist Renewald에 실린 우크라아니 동부지역의 분리그룹 내부 움직임에 대한 러시아 좌파 활동가 보리스 카갈리츠키의 글을 번역하여 싣는다. 번역은 델라님께서 맡았다. <편집자>

Redian.org
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* Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal은 우크라이나의 정치적 상황에 대해 다양한 좌파적 견해를 발표해왔다. 이 글들이 반드시 발행인의 의견을 대변하지는 않는다. 아래는 모스크바의 Boris Kagarlitsky의 글이다. (Renfrey Clarke 번역)

우크라이나 정부와 노보로시야 Novorossiya 공화국(노보로시야는 ‘신러시아’라는 뜻. 우크라이나로부터 독립을 선포한 도네츠크 주와 루간스크 주 일대 지역이 모여 결성한 국가) 사이의 전쟁은 점차 교착상태가 되어가고 있다. 양쪽의 자원은 소모되고 있고, 전투 역량도 바닥을 보이고 있다.