Boris Kagarlitsky

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having profound repercussions for the international system and the global economy. In this conversation, Boris Kagarlitsky discusses the implications of the war on the Russian economy, its financial sector, and the Russian elite. Furthermore, he nalyzes the ongoing crisis of globalization, in particular Western sanctions, rising commodity prices, and the current role of China.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has not only destroyed the lives of many thousands in both states, but also dealt a heavy blow to left and left-liberal political discourse in the West. Over the course of many years, ideological clichés have developed and worked successfully, allowing a more or less predictable response to any conflict and crisis in the modern world. We knew for sure that the main source of problems is the policy of the conservative elites of the West, aimed at oppressing the peoples of the global South.
“Stupidity or treason?” asked State Duma deputy Pavel Milyukov in 1916, when the imperial Russian army was in the midst of retreat under the onslaught of the Germans, surrendering city after city along the western borders. A little over a hundred years later, we hear exactly the same exclamations from domestic patriots, complaining that either some secret enemies or incompetent individuals - who have somehow risen to the highest echelons of power - are alone responsible for defeat in the war with Ukraine.

In this interview with Federico Fuentes, Kagarlitsky provides insight into the domestic factors behind the Russian regime’s decision to invade Ukraine, why President Vladimir Putin is seeking an “everlasting war”, the critical role being played by the left in anti-war organising, and prospects for social upheaval in Russia. A much shorter version of this interview first appeared in Green Left.

Boris Kagarlitsky responds to criticism he underestimates NATO provocations. He also analyzes the changing politics of Ukraine and growing anti-war feelings in Russia.
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By Boris Kagarlitsky

June 4, 2022 — Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal reposted from Russian Dissent — With the US Senate’s approval of the latest “lend-lease” law, and with Ukraine set to receive a bonus offering of modern Western weapons and financial assistance, the question of who will win the war can now be considered resolved. The current Russian government not only lacks the material resources, but also the human resources necessary for a protracted conflict. It has no goal or ideology for which it would be possible to convince its citizens to fight. Mass mobilization is impossible because it would inevitably cause mass protests, and in any case neither the economy nor the military infrastructure is prepared to maintain the existence of a massive army. Aggressive propaganda, whether in the form of appeals to common inhumanity or threats against the whole world, might poison the consciousness of the older generation, but does not work as a motivation for people who will have to be compelled to fight or work for the war effort. On the contrary, discontent and even resistance is growing (as evidenced by the repeated arsons of military registration and enlistment offices). The defense industry, which has been in decline for decades, is unable to make up for the loss of equipment, and sanctions have further hobbled the production of the most important components, without which modern weapons manufacturing is impossible. Of course, occasionally the industry finds ways to circumvent sanctions, but production remains extremely expensive, and most importantly, suffers from supply instability.