Cuba: Where is the Russian oil? The truth that Moscow silences

First published in Spanish on Eduardo Miguel Álvarez Estévez’s Facebook. Translation by Jackson Remple for LINKS International Journal of Socialist Renewal.

Russia says it is Cuba’s strategic ally. They repeat it at every summit. In every communiqué. On every anniversary of our bilateral relations. But the oil is not arriving. The ships do not appear. And the electric power blackouts continue to happen.

You asked me to find out why. This is what I have found.

The fact: The oil supply has collapsed

Since May, the flow of Russian oil to Cuba has virtually disappeared. The Anatoly Kolodkin arrived in Matanzas carrying 730,000 barrels thanks to a humanitarian exemption that Washington granted sparingly. It was the only Russian tanker that reached Cuba. The Universal, which was following the Kolodkin with 270,000 barrels of diesel, was left adrift in the Atlantic for weeks. It finally unloaded its cargo in Venezuela. The Sea Horse diverted to Trinidad and Tobago. The shipping companies that had previously transported Russian crude to Cuba simply stopped doing so.

This was no accident. It was a decision.

The reason: The US naval blockade

On May 30, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a warning that reverberated throughout the world’s ports. Any vessel, flying any flag, that was carrying Russian oil to Cuba would be sanctioned. Not just the ship. But also the shipping company, the insurer and the bank that was financing the operation. Everyone.

The US did not send its Navy to intercept the ships. It did not need to. It was enough for it to threaten the companies that were involved in international maritime trade. No shipping company is prepared to risk being cut off from the dollar-based financial system for the sake of a single shipment to Cuba.

Russia knows this. That is why its ships are not arriving in Cuba.

The uncomfortable truth: Moscow is not prepared to escalate

This goes to the heart of the question. Militarily, Russia has the means to escort an oil tanker to Matanzas. It has nuclear submarines, frigates carrying hypersonic missiles and long-range bombers. But it is not sending its tankers to Cuba with military escorts. Not because it cannot, but because it does not want to pay the political and military price of a direct confrontation with the US Navy in the Caribbean.

As far as Russia is concerned, Cuba is a pawn on the geopolitical chessboard. It is a means of applying pressure on Washington. A base for strategic bombers. An anti-imperialist symbol that helps Russia gain prestige in the Global South. But it is not a vital priority for Russia. It is not Ukraine. It is not the Arctic. It is not on Russia’s immediate border.

When the going gets tough, Moscow chooses its battles. And the battle to supply oil to Cuba is not on its list of priorities.

The Kremlin’s silence

What is most revealing is not what Russia says. It is what Russia does not say. It has not forcefully condemned the US oil blockade in the United Nations Security Council. It has not threatened to retaliate against Washington. The Kremlin has not issued a statement saying that “we will guarantee supplies to our strategic ally whatever the cost may be.”

Instead, a diplomatic silence prevails. Meanwhile, the official communiqués continue to speak of “strategic cooperation” and “brotherhood between peoples”. But these lovely words will not light a stove or keep a hospital running.

What I believe

Your question is a fair one. The answer is harsh. Russia stopped sending oil to Cuba because the US banned the rest of the world from doing it, and Moscow is not willing to defy that ban with actions, only with words.

Is Russia a strategic ally of Cuba? In speeches, yes. In practice, when sanctions bite, everyone fends for themselves.

I am not writing this out of anger. I am writing it out of realism. Because long ago the Cuban Revolution learned that international solidarity is important, but the only guarantee of our survival is ourselves.

If Russian oil does not arrive, we will manage without it. Just as we managed in the 1990s, when the Soviet Union vanished overnight and they said that Cuba would fall within weeks. We did not fall then. We will not fall now.

Because our strength does not lie in Moscow. It lies within us.

Fatherland or Death. We shall prevail.