The Turkish Syria vs the new Syria

First published at The Kurdish Center for Studies.

The active diplomatic efforts undertaken by the “caretaker” government suggest that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has a clear program for shaping a new Syria after 54 years of rule by Bashar al-Assad and his father.

The visits made by the ministers of foreign affairs and defense, as well as the head of intelligence, to Saudi Arabia and then to the UAE, alongside the trips by the foreign ministers of Germany and France to Damascus, are seen as gains for the government in Damascus. They also demonstrate an Arab and international interest in what is happening in Syria.

Everyone perceives that Syria has opened up to the world and is now preparing for a national dialogue, which the government claims will pave the way for a political process and effective governance. Numerous significant issues await resolution: the relationship between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the government, the Constitution and the nature of the state, decentralization, the formation of the army and security forces, displaced persons/refugees, the foreign presence — especially Turkish occupation — and relations with neighboring countries and the Arab world.

A notable meeting took place between Ahmed al-Shara, head of the transitional administration, and a delegation from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to discuss the new Syrian army. Reports from the meeting indicated that it was positive, with both Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the SDF agreeing to hold further meetings in order to develop an understanding and find solutions to various issues.

This meeting occurred at a time when Turkey and its affiliated militias continue to launch attacks in the rural areas of Kobanê and Manbij, alongside attempts to seize control of the Al-Tabqa Dam and the Qara Qozak Bridge. While Ankara pressures Damascus to take military action against the SDF, Turkish and Qatari media efforts are busy spreading fake news and inciting hatred against the SDF and the Autonomous Administration, fostering anti-Kurd sentiments.

Both France and Germany have expressed support for dialogue between Damascus, the Autonomous Administration, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot while in Damascus called for the new administration to reach a political solution with the Kurds, stating: “A political solution must be found with France’s Kurdish allies so that they can be fully integrated into the current political process.” The French minister also held a phone call with General Mazloum Abdi, commander of the SDF, in which they discussed the situation and developments, the role of the SDF, the attacks by factions supported by Ankara, the threats from the Turkish government to attack Kobanê, and the operations conducted by the SDF against the ISIS terrorist organization.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock informed Al-Shara in Damascus that the Kurds must be included in the political process, asserting that “the Kurds in Syria need reliable security guarantees.” Baerbock also stated that “Europe will not provide funding for new Islamic structures.”

The issue of the form of the state and the framework that defines the relationship between the various parties and the central authority is one of the most pressing concerns facing Syrians today. In this context, decentralization is crucial — it will determine the shape and nature of the future state and dictate whether the new phase will be characterized by cooperation or conflict, significantly influencing the overall situation in Syria.

The Sweida governorate has refused to surrender its weapons and hand over its headquarters and institutions to militants affiliated with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, the spiritual leader of the Druze community, stated, “Handing over weapons is absolutely unacceptable until a state is formed and a constitution is written to guarantee our rights.” There is a prevailing political trend in Sweida advocating for local management and opposing the entry of outside forces. This represents a clear call for administrative decentralization.

Decentralization is also a demand from the northeastern region of Syria, which was established on a Social Contract among various components, including Arabs, Kurds, Syriacs, and others. The SDF has protected this region through significant sacrifices, positioning itself as a key partner in the fight against ISIS, having liberated Raqqa from its control in 2017 and eliminating its last stronghold in Baghouz in 2019.

There is a growing belief among Syrian social groups and communities that decentralization is the only formula capable of safeguarding their rights and preventing a single-centered ideology from imposing an agenda that conflicts with their ethnic, religious, and sectarian identities. After explicit demands for the inclusion of decentralization in the new Syrian Constitution from the North and East Syria region and the Sweida governorate, similar calls are emerging from the Syrian coastal area and among Christian communities in the interior cities.

While Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham opposes all forms of administrative decentralization and seeks military, administrative, and ideological expansion throughout the country, the media apparatus of Turkey, Qatar, and their affiliated Syrian opposition continues to distort this notion, accusing anyone advocating for decentralization of treason and alleging that they aim to divide Syria.

This distortion and labeling of treason predominantly target the Kurdish component, as well as sheikhs, dignitaries, and intellectuals of the Druze community in Sweida. Notably, there is a disregard for decentralized administrative structures present in both Idlib (the Salvation Government/Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) and areas occupied by Turkey (the Syrian interim Government/the Coalition). Additionally, the “Syrian National Army,” a separatist armed formation backed by Turkey, occupies vast territories in Syria and implements deliberate policies aimed at Turkification and annexation.

There is vigilant monitoring of developments in Damascus. Internally, there is a Syrian movement that rejects any changes Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham seeks to impose on the institutions of the Syrian state, particularly regarding freedom of expression, individual liberties, educational curricula, and women’s rights. There is growing international acceptance of the concept of decentralization. The prevailing belief is that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which overthrew the Assad regime militarily and imposed its authority, is unlikely to relinquish power — a sentiment supported by the notion that “whoever liberates decides.” The measures being implemented by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, such as granting military ranks to field officers following their naturalization, indicate that it is in a phase of “empowerment.” Its ultimate goal appears to be the Islamization of Syria and transforming it into an Islamic emirate similar to what the Taliban achieved in Afghanistan.

This context is present in the statement by the German foreign minister regarding Europe’s refusal to fund the Islamic structures that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham intends to establish and solidify in the country. Thus, any funding from Europe for a government in Damascus and contributions to reconstruction will be conditional upon the establishment of a civil state rather than a religious one, which respects the identities of various Syrian components, embraces decentralization, and avoids unilateral decisions, exclusion, and military and security solutions.

The international stance on the North and East Syria region and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is positive. There is a level of acceptance of the region’s demands for decentralization and the maintenance of its unique identity within the new state structure. There is a tendency for the SDF to remain the most organized and disciplined force, continuing its role as a leading entity in the fight against ISIS, which has started to expand in the Syrian desert, exploiting the security vacuum as its cells launch attacks in various regions. Moreover, the SDF is expected to maintain control over prisons and detention facilities housing thousands of ISIS members and camps holding tens of thousands of family members of detained fighters.

In light of this, France has conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS positions in the Syrian desert, confirming a renewed involvement in the international campaign against ISIS in collaboration with the SDF, based on the intelligence they provide. Likewise, the United States has begun constructing a military base in Kobanê, transferring heavy equipment and surveillance gear, along with dozens of soldiers, to the city that played a crucial role in the fight against ISIS over a decade ago. This move serves as a message to Turkey not to advance toward Kobani and simultaneously signals to Damascus that Washington continues to view the SDF as a trusted partner in counter-terrorism operations.

The Turkish state is closely monitoring developments in Syria, aiming to replace both Iran and Russia in the emerging Syrian landscape. Ankara seeks strategic agreements that will grant it a dominant position within Syria, establishing a strong influence over its political and economic spheres. Currently, Turkey is attempting to negotiate agreements with the transitional authority to delineate maritime borders and expand its presence into Syrian territorial waters, preparing for the exploitation of Syrian oil and gas resources.

In addition, Turkey is preparing to set up both land and sea military bases, fully overseeing reconstruction efforts while determining the shape of the political system and establishing the framework and relationships of the new state. Ankara remains silent about the areas it has occupied alongside its allied factions, proceeding with a methodical approach toward Turkification amidst the silence from Damascus and many Syrian political forces.

From the Turkish perspective, Syria is envisioned as a centralized, subordinate state led by structures of extremist political Islam. This viewpoint regards Syrian cultural and civil norms as red lines and taboos, where even seemingly minor details — such as shaking hands with a woman, regardless of her status as the foreign minister of an influential country — are seen as significant transgressions and an unforgivable concession against the “constants” of their faith.

This dynamic reflects Turkey’s broader ambitions in the region, where it seeks to assert its influence while sidelining other powers and ignoring the aspirations of the Syrian people for a more inclusive and democratic state. The ongoing Turkification policies and the imposition of rigid ideological frameworks further complicate the situation, leading to increased tensions and resistance from various segments of Syrian society.

Dr. Tariq Hemo is a research associate at the Kurdish Center for Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and specializes on researching the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and political Islam. He has co-authored a book with Dr. Salah Nayouf titled Freedom and Democracy in the Discourse of Political Islam After the Recent Transformations in the Arab World. He is currently a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the Arab Academy in Denmark.