Post-Assad Syria: Entering the era of ‘Assadism without Assad’

First published in Arabic at Revolutionary Left Current. Translation by LINKS International Journal of Socialist Renewal.

After more than five decades of the Assad family’s rule over Syria, a new phase in the country’s history has begun, raising profound questions about the nature of the existing and emerging political system and the future of the Syrian state. 

With Bashar al-Assad fleeing and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham seizing power as a result of international agreements, Syria appears to be entering a phase that can be described as “Assadism without an Assad”. This phase is characterised by the continuation of the security, political and economic mechanisms established by the regimes of Hafez al-Assad and his successor, Bashar, but without relying on Assad as the central symbol of governance. This article aims to analyse this phase by examining the political, social and economic transformations taking place in Syria, with a focus on the role of the new ruling class, the security services and the international community in shaping the country's future.

Assadism without Assad: Regime continuity with new faces

Although Bashar al-Assad has disappeared from the political scene, the structures built by the Assad regime are still in place. The security services, once the backbone of the regime, have become a tool in the hands of the new powers controlling the country. These agencies, once used to suppress dissent and subjugate the people, are now reproducing themselves under different names, but with the same repressive tools.

The new ruling class, made up of alliances between radical Islamist forces and elements of the former regime, relies on the same bureaucratic and security methods that prevailed under Assad. The recently issued interim constitutional declaration enshrines this continuity by consolidating powers in the hands of the president and reproducing the autocratic and centralised system of government that prevailed under Assad. Even the People’s Assembly, which was used as a pseudo-democratic façade, is being reshaped into a pliant tool of the new authorities.

Sectarian massacres and policies of repression: Continuing systemic violence

One of the most prominent manifestations of continuity in the new regime’s policies is its use of sectarian violence as a tool of control. The sectarian massacres against Alawites on the coast, carried out under the pretext of pursuing “remnants of the former regime”, closely resemble the former regime’s policies of suppressing dissent under the pretext of combating terrorism. These massacres reflect a continuation of the “divide and rule” policy used by the former regime to perpetuate divisions in Syrian society.

The policies of indiscriminate bombing of cities and residential areas, which were a prominent feature of the Assad regime’s war against the Syrian people, are now being repeated by the new powers. Dropping barrel bombs on civilians and targeting residential neighbourhoods have become daily practices, confirming that systemic violence has not stopped, only the perpetrators have changed. 

Media and disinformation: Continued policies of denial

Media disinformation, which was a key tool of the Assad regime to falsify facts and mislead public opinion, is now being repurposed by the new regime. The policies of denial and disinformation, used to justify the crimes of the previous regime, are being reproduced today to justify the crimes of the new regime.

The new media discourse adopts the same old tactics, portraying sectarian violence and repression as necessary measures to “protect national security” and “combat terrorism”. This discourse reflects a continuation of the culture of impunity that characterised the Assad regime, where crimes are justified under the guise of national security.

The international factor: Consensus and diktats

The international community, which played a key role in shaping Syria’s political landscape during the war years, continues to influence the course of events in the post-Assad era. The international agreements that led to HTS’s seizure of power reflect the interests of the major powers in the region, which favour relative stability even at the expense of democracy and human rights.

These agreements have led to the reproduction of the old regime with new faces, where the principles underlying the security and economic structures that existed during the Assad era are preserved. Instead of supporting democratisation, international factors are reproducing authoritarianism under different names.

Conclusion: Assadism without Assad

Syria today is entering a phase of “Assadism without Assad”, in which the structures of the old regime are preserved but without relying on Assad’s person as a central symbol. This phase is characterised by continued sectarian violence, security repression and media disinformation, reflecting a continuation of the culture of authoritarianism that characterised the Assad era.

The new ruling class, supported by the international community, is reproducing the old regime with new faces, confirming that real change in Syria requires more than simply removing Assad. Real change requires dismantling the structures of the old regime and the economic, social and political relations that reproduce that regime and system, together with building a democratic system based on social justice and human rights.

In the end, post-Assad Syria is nothing but a continuation of the essence of the old regime, which has re-emerged in a new form to suit the new faces. This raises profound questions about the possibility of achieving democratic transformation while the system of authoritarianism is still in place.