Russian political prisoner Boris Kagarlitsky on the Moscow-Washington axis
First published in Russian at Rabkor. Translation by Dmitry Pozhidaev for LINKS International Journal of Socialist Renewal.
[Editor’s note: This letter was sent by Boris Kagarlitsky on February 19 from the penal colony in Torzhok, Russia, where he is serving a five-year sentence for “justification of terrorism.” As such, it does not cover more recent developments, in particular the meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and United States President Donald Trump. Nevertheless, in contains important insights for understanding what is occurring today.]
After the television announced that we would now be aligning with the United States against Europe, some confusion arose among the inmates of IK-4 prison. The most well-read among them rushed to the library to request 1984 by George Orwell. A queue quickly formed.
In reality, understanding the logic of these events is not difficult. The Russian ruling elite desperately needs the support of Donald Trump’s administration to extricate themselves from the dead-end situation they have created. The trouble is that the price of this assistance may turn out to be prohibitively high.
As I have written before, for the first time in many decades, the US is governed by people who do not consider themselves bound by the rules and obligations that existed throughout the 20th century. There was much debate about the fate of the world-system described by [Immanuel] Wallerstein and the hegemony of the US. Some believed it was threatened by China’s rise, while others saw Russia’s policies as an attempt to alter or dismantle the global order. Now we understand that US hegemony is indeed coming to an end, but its destroyer is the US administration itself — because hegemony is a burden of obligations and responsibilities that Trump refuses to carry.
The end of hegemony does not mean the end of imperialism. On the contrary, we are witnessing the most aggressive and shameless form of imperialism, where the US interacts with its neighbors through a “big stick” policy. Washington’s new orientation is towards dominance, one that does not take into account the interests or rights of others. Russia is being openly offered the role of a junior partner in this enterprise — one directed against China, Europe, and indeed the entire rest of the world, including even Canada.
It seems that the people in power in Moscow have little choice but to accept these terms, especially since Trump will accommodate them on the Ukraine issue (to the extent that it does not interfere with the interests and ambitions of his own team). Beyond that, all that remains is to hope for good fortune and the ability of European diplomats to keep the situation under control. But the Moscow-Washington axis is clearly taking shape.
The problem is that such a pivot, being unprepared and forced, contradicts economic, political and cultural trends — including those cultivated by the current government. And it is not just about how this shift will be perceived by the patriotic public, for whom anti-Americanism is a central ideological pillar. More importantly, Russia's economic ties are oriented towards Europe and China, while the US has little to offer in return. Worse still, under Trump, the process of pushing Russian suppliers out of European markets will continue.
Russian business, which dreams of normalising relations with the West, will indeed get normalisation — but in such a form that things will only get worse. As for politics, the Trump administration not only tolerates Russia’s current leadership; it sees it as ideal. A partner unconstrained by public opinion, unconcerned with the opposition, and indifferent even to the economic interests of its own country — such a partner is perfect. For Russian liberals who still believe that the US embodies the forces of good, this will be an unpleasant revelation. Likewise for those in the “Global South” who had hoped to find in Vladimir Putin an ally against US imperialism. However, such disillusionment was inevitable in any case.
Fortunately, there are good reasons to believe that the rapprochement between these two authoritarian projects will not be smooth. It will face resistance even at the elite level. European states are unlikely to allow themselves to be completely sidelined from the settlement process, which means they will retain some influence over events. In Russia itself, business circles interested in ties with Europe and China will be forced to resist — albeit through bureaucratic lobbying rather than political means. Even within the US, Trumpism’s position is not as solid as it might have seemed in November 2024, after the Democrats’ electoral collapse. Though the Trumpist administration has shown a remarkable immunity to public opinion, resistance will grow amid an unprecedented split within the ruling class.
I believe that we are not headed for a bleak era of triumphant totalitarianism in the spirit of Orwell’s 1984, but rather a period of sharp and sometimes chaotic struggle. We simply need to recognise the threat and understand its scale.